The month-to-month oil chart leaves an ominous sign

WTI monthly

I am not going to attract any fancy traces on the chart however a look on the month-to-month oil chart stands out due to the looming mirror picture from April 2020, when costs went deeply unfavourable solely to depart a largely unchanged candle.

This time it is a completely different geopolitical occasion however a lot of the identical look with costs ending the month about the place they began in buying and selling that was almost as risky. As we speak, WTI crude oil fell $7.17 to $100.69 after briefly cracking $100.

If we see a deeper retracement it’ll possible be resulting from covid as soon as once more. Shanghai prolonged its lockdown at present for an additional 10 days and expanded it to new elements of town. Nationwide there have been greater than 8000 new covid instances in China and President Xi this week doubled down on the coverage of ‘dynamic covid zero’.

If lockdowns had been to develop extra widespread it might badly sap demand for crude amongst China’s 1.4 billion folks.

Biden additionally introduced the releases of 180 million barrels from the SPR at present in a transfer that might assist to stability the market within the brief time period.

A closing issue to observe is Iran and a possible nuclear deal. At instances it has seemed extraordinarily shut however the newest indicators have been extra combined.

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