Setting complete return targets (TR) is tempting. It sells as a result of people hate variance however love targets. A goal return seems like management. Combining goal returns with a confidence hall, that’s, a promise that annual extra returns will keep inside a slim band (e.g., ± 3%) across the goal (e.g., 4%) more often than not, seems like self-discipline. A calendar 12 months seems like a horizon. None of those are economics; they’re psychology and reporting conventions, conflating measurement with management. The purpose of this quick notice is to not moralize about optimism. It’s to do the disagreeable arithmetic that converts a verbal TR goal into an implied Sharpe ratio requirement. As soon as that conversion is made, most “TR” claims will be acknowledged for what they suggest: an try to smuggle a hedge-fund-like promise right into a long-only balanced wrapper.
