Over a long period, the only strategy I’ve seen work on the FOMC decision is fading any big moves exactly 10 minutes before the press conference starts.
Today, I’ve seen some people noting that stock markets have fallen when the decision is first announced and then rebounded when Powell began speaking. That fits into my above strategy but it’s also fraught with risks, especially since this could be a fundamentally different statement with a nod to slowing the pace of hikes.
Look at all those retweets
Ultimately, I think you need to go where the fundamentals take you. Watch Fed funds implied probabilities and whether it matches up with what the Fed is saying. There will inevitably be a Fed pause as they take stock of the lagged impact of rate hikes and at some point they’ll need to signal that. At the same time, stock markets had a great run in October so the low-hanging fruit isn’t there.
