This was a nasty week when it comes to financial information for Germany: it began on Tuesday with a contraction in manufacturing PMI for the eleventh month in a row (42.9, nicely beneath the contraction threshold of fifty), in a rustic the place business is its sturdy level; it continued with fairly detrimental measurements from the distinguished financial institute IFO on the present state of the financial system. Lastly on Friday, first the very dangerous client confidence information after which the knowledge that Germany has entered recession, after 2 quarters in a row of contraction (-0.4% final, –0.3% this, Q/Q). Consumption was weak as ”households spent much less on meals and drinks, clothes and footwear, and on furnishings”, within the phrases of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, which compiles the information. Finance Minister Christian Lindner just lately said in Berlin that “we should flip financial coverage round and put an finish to the abandonment of our competitiveness”, in a transparent reference to power and industrial coverage. Lastly, a drop in buying energy, thinned-out industrial order books in addition to the influence of essentially the most aggressive financial coverage tightening in many years, and the anticipated slowdown of the US financial system all argue in favor of a continued weak financial exercise.

GER40, German GDP Progress Fee

Regardless of this the DAX is one step away from all-time highs, reminding us as soon as once more that the financial system is just not the markets – or at the least they don’t transfer collectively (within the chart, to be honest, one can see a sure lag between the index worth and GDP development, with the previous seeming to precede, at the least after 2020)

Technical evaluation

Final Friday, the DAX touched its all-time excessive of 16,331 in comparison with a earlier excessive on the fifth of January 2022 at 16,285. Since then, it has not had a very good week and at present trades about 3% decrease at 15,848; a efficiency, nonetheless, in step with different European indices such because the French FRA40(-3.5%) (that curiously sufficient has printed decrease highs in respect to its Apr 2023 ones).

GER40 vs FR40

The GER40 remains to be exhibiting a transparent bullish development that began on the finish of September 2022 (gentle inexperienced) and slowed down originally of this yr (darkish inexperienced channel). After the descent of the previous couple of days, the index managed to bounce off the most essential assist of 2023 until now, 15,700 (which can also be the place the MM50 is passing). It might break this degree with out compromising the longer-term development, which might nonetheless be secure at the least till round 15,475. The very fact is that when that degree is reached, there might be additional area right down to 15,250 and that will clearly be beneath the 8 month lengthy trendline. The subsequent most essential assist, considering the costs of 2022, is within the 14,725 space, the place the GER40 would in all probability additionally commerce near its MM 200.

At the moment the degrees to look at fastidiously for a sign of the route within the coming days are 15,700 – 16,000.

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Marco Turatti

Market Analyst

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