Will Central Banks Spark a Global Recession?

Analyst Chat Talking Points:

• Five inflation reports from major economies this week puts central banks’ fight against rising price pressures into focus.
• The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has revealed that the world’s second largest economy is dealing with a significant economic slowdown.
• The Japanese Ministry of Finance’s efforts to prop up the Japanese Yen are no match for the US Dollar wrecking ball.

There is a distinctly non-American flavor to the economic calendar this week: all of the high rated data releases come from Asia and Europe, with none for the US economy.

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is underway, and there have been two major developments already: first, zero-COVID isn’t going away anytime soon; and second, the government has suspended the release of the 3Q’22 GDP report (among other releases).

Otherwise, our attention the remainder of this week rests with the five inflation reports due out from major economies. New Zealand already released their 3Q’22 inflation report, which came in hotter than expected. Canada, the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK will release theirs in the days ahead. With inflation remaining stubbornly high in developed economies, central banks will likely keep raising rates for the foreseeable future.

One central bank stands out, however: the Bank of Japan. The Japanese Yen is at its weakest level versus the US Dollar since 1990, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance has pledged to prevent excessive moves in FX markets. An official intervention was announced on September 22, but it appears there may have been efforts on October 13 and overnight today as well.

Is a global recession all but guaranteed as central banks try to wrestle inflation down?Chief Strategist John Kicklighter and Senior Strategist Christopher Vecchio, CFA discuss in this Tuesday’s DailyFX Analyst Chat.

— Written by John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist and Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist