In 1924, Edgar Lawrence Smith printed an empirical examine displaying that an fairness premium had been constantly realized in historical past. The now-familiar concept that shares will outperform bonds over the long term was at the moment a startling rejection of standard knowledge. Smith’s contemporaries anticipated bonds to have outperformed below the deflationary circumstances that prevailed within the later nineteenth century. Utilizing not too long ago compiled information, I revisit the query of whether or not historical past reveals an unconditioned fairness premium. US and UK information present the historic fairness premium to be contingent on the absence of deflation. US and Japan information present that disinflation has results much like deflation. The paper concludes by growing the implications of accepting a contingent fairness premium.
