On the night of 24 June 2026, a magnitude 7.2 foreshock struck north-central Venezuela and, 39 seconds later, a magnitude 7.5 mainshock adopted. Each had been shallow. Destruction concentrated within the coastal state of La Guaira and the capital, Caracas, the place La Guaira was declared a catastrophe zone. GeoPoll reached affected households immediately by a WhatsApp fast wants evaluation that opened the morning after the quake and stays within the area.
This report updates our first evaluation, printed on 28 June. The bigger pattern widens geographic protection throughout the nation and lets us separate the areas in disaster from people who felt solely a tremor with far better confidence.
Abstract Findings
- The affect is concentrated, and the sample held because the pattern grew. Six states alongside the central coast and capital hall account for 432 of 846 responses. La Guaira (common felt depth 9.6 out of 10), Caracas (8.8), Miranda (8.4), Carabobo (8.3) and Aragua (8.3) stay the core of the catastrophe. Yaracuy (7.4) emerged as a newly outstanding high-intensity state within the bigger pattern.
- Quake-driven wants cluster sharply within the affect zone. Housing harm, displacement, lack of consuming water, blocked roads and compromised hospitals are two to 3 occasions extra widespread contained in the zone than exterior it.
- Meals, energy and connectivity gaps seem nationwide. Restricted meals (51 % within the zone, 45 % exterior), unreliable electrical energy and patchy connectivity are elevated in every single place, pointing to pre-existing pressure the earthquake compounds quite than causes. Distinguishing the 2 issues for concentrating on.
- Water and meals are the binding constraints within the zone. 41 % of impact-zone households report restricted or no consuming water and 51 % restricted or no meals. Meals was the only most requested want in open responses, named by roughly 293 households nationwide.
- Displacement is actual however a minority. Within the affect zone, 81 households (19 %) won’t sleep in their very own dwelling, together with 17 sleeping outside or on the street.
- The data hole persists. Nationwide, 58 % mentioned the data they most want however can not get is aftershock and security updates, and almost 4 in 5 depend on social media or WhatsApp for earthquake data.
- Respondents skew older and concrete. The imply respondent age is 53 and 59 % reside in city areas. This shapes interpretation and is mentioned within the methodology be aware.
The actionable conclusion is unchanged and now higher evidenced: want is targeting the central coast and capital area, and sources directed there’ll attain the folks in disaster.
Background and technique
The emergency
The 24 June sequence was felt most violently alongside the north-central coast and in Caracas. Authorities declared La Guaira a catastrophe zone and reported that greater than 70,000 households had been affected. Official casualty figures, which stay the authoritative supply for lack of life, ranged as of late June from roughly 188 to 235 useless and greater than 4,300 injured, with numbers anticipated to rise as evaluation continued.
GeoPoll fielded a fast wants evaluation by way of WhatsApp, reaching folks on the telephones already of their palms and permitting them to report their very own circumstances. The instrument covers 54 questions spanning location, felt depth, family casualties, housing, displacement, water, meals, energy, connectivity, roads, hospital entry, fuel and hearth threat, data wants and sources, and demographics.
Discovering 1: The affect is geographically concentrated
After we map self-reported shaking depth by state, a transparent cluster emerges alongside the north-central coast and capital hall, matching the areas authorities and humanitarian companies recognized as worst affected. We outline the affect zone as six states, in keeping with our first report, so the 2 rounds will be in contrast immediately.
The six-state affect zone accounts for 432 of 846 responses, roughly 51 % of the pattern. La Guaira, which residents rated essentially the most extreme, is the place authorities declared a catastrophe zone. The impartial, household-level knowledge factors to the identical epicenter of struggling that official channels recognized, which raises confidence in each.
The distinction on the backside of the chart is the actionable half. Want is concentrated, not diffuse. Sources directed to the central coast and capital area will attain the folks in disaster. Broad nationwide distribution would unfold skinny throughout areas that report little harm.
Discovering 2: Contained in the affect zone, what households face
The bigger pattern permits a comparability the primary report couldn’t make cleanly: circumstances contained in the affect zone in opposition to a considerable rest-of-country pattern. That comparability separates the wants the earthquake created from the pressure Venezuelan households had been already dwelling with. Each are actual. They name for various responses.
Quake-driven: housing, displacement, water and entry
Contained in the affect zone, 60 % of households report dwelling harm, together with 28 with main harm, unsafe circumstances or a house destroyed. Throughout the remainder of the nation mixed, solely 9 households reported main harm or destruction. Displacement follows the identical line: 81 impact-zone households (19 %) won’t sleep in their very own dwelling, of whom 52 are staying with family or neighbors and 17 are sleeping outside or on the street, mirroring what responders report in Caracas and La Guaira, the place residents worry weakened buildings might collapse in an aftershock.
Water exhibits the identical quake signature. Within the affect zone, 31 households report no consuming water and 146 solely restricted water, 41 % constrained in opposition to 23 % exterior the zone. Caracas alone accounts for 15 households with no water and 53 with restricted provide. Blocked roads and broken or unreachable hospitals additionally focus within the zone, at 40 and 38 households respectively.
Nationwide pressure: meals, energy, connectivity
Meals shortage is worst within the zone (51 % restricted or none) however excessive in every single place (45 % exterior), and electrical energy issues are literally extra widespread exterior the zone (38 % in opposition to 30 %), led by chronically affected states similar to Zulia. These are largely pre-existing nationwide circumstances the earthquake compounds domestically. Zone concentrating on addresses the quake harm; solely broader programming addresses the baseline pressure.
Discovering 3: The human toll, within the phrases of these reporting it
Every determine under is a family that reached out. These are counts of respondents reporting an emergency in their very own family, not inhabitants totals. Trapped-person experiences focus virtually completely within the affect zone: 25 of the 28 come from inside it.
Some households additionally reported a demise within the household. According to the precept acknowledged within the graphic, we don’t publish a casualty rely and defer to official figures. These experiences do, nonetheless, sign the place bereavement help and household tracing are most wanted, concentrated within the affect zone.
Behind every determine is a voice. Respondents had been requested, in a single or two phrases, what their family wants most. Their solutions, printed anonymously and with out modifying, carry the evaluation higher than any combination.
“Que los saquen de los escombros, necesitamos maquinarias y voluntarios”Caracas; dwelling destroyed, household in La Guaira, family lacking
“Mi hijo es militar y está en La Guaira y no me he comunicado con él desde las 11 de la mañana”Caracas
“Agua potable y comida con urgencia”La Guaira; family displaced, no water
“Que aparezca mi hermano”Trujillo; member of the family lacking
“Enlatados, agua, pasta de dientes, jabón, bombillos recargables, velas”La Guaira; sheltering, dwelling broken
“Ayuda psicológica y comida”Miranda
Many respondents whose personal houses had been intact used the identical open textual content to level responders elsewhere, writing that others close by had misplaced extra. That intuition is value noting for coordination: group members are themselves flagging the place the deepest want sits.
Discovering 4: The data surroundings and what folks can not discover out
Disruptions to energy and telecommunications, in an already restricted data surroundings, have made it onerous for residents and their family to be taught what has occurred. The evaluation measured each what data households most want and the place they’re getting it.
Aftershock and security data dominates each different want by a large margin, inside and out of doors the affect zone alike. Persons are not solely quick on water and shelter, they’re quick on the data they should resolve whether or not to sleep inside, when to return, and learn how to keep protected if the bottom shakes once more.
The channel knowledge explains why the hole persists and what to do about it. Households rely overwhelmingly on casual digital channels quite than official broadcasts. If almost 4 in 5 folks get earthquake data from social media and WhatsApp, then official aftershock steering, return-safety recommendation and shelter data will attain them quickest by those self same channels. A WhatsApp evaluation like this one is just not solely a listening software. It’s a demonstrated supply channel for the precise security data households say they can’t get.
Discovering 5: What folks say they want most
Past the structured indicators, households described their most urgent want in their very own phrases. Coding these open responses into themes provides a demand-side view of priorities that closed questions can not.
Three factors stand out for responders. First, meals has overtaken water as essentially the most incessantly named want on this bigger pattern, although each stay acute and infrequently seem collectively in the identical response. Second, psychological help recurs usually and explicitly, with dozens of households asking for calm, reassurance or psychological well being assist, an simply missed want within the first days after a quake. Third, many households body their want economically, asking for the means to purchase meals and supplies quite than the objects themselves, which is related to any cash-based response design
Implications for the response
The evaluation factors to a transparent, sector-linked set of priorities for the central coast and capital area.
- Goal geographically. Focus water, shelter and restore response on La Guaira, Caracas, Miranda, Carabobo, Aragua and Yaracuy. The information doesn’t help skinny nationwide distribution for quake-driven wants.
- Lead with water and meals. Roughly half of impact-zone households report constrained meals and 4 in ten constrained water. These are the binding each day constraints and the highest open-text asks.
- Distinguish quake harm from persistent pressure. Housing, displacement, water and entry issues are quake-specific and zone-targeted. Meals, energy and connectivity gaps are nationwide; programming for them mustn’t assume they finish on the zone boundary.
- Design for money the place markets operate. Many households ask for the means to purchase necessities, suggesting money or voucher modalities can work alongside in-kind distribution.
- Useful resource medical outreach and household tracing within the zone. Trapped-person, harm, missing-person and damaged-hospital experiences cluster virtually completely within the affect zone.
- Embrace psychological well being and psychosocial help. Requests for calm and psychological assist are frequent and specific.
- Ship security data by social media and WhatsApp. That’s the place almost 4 in 5 households already get earthquake data, and aftershock and return-safety steering is the only most requested unmet want.
Knowledge entry and the way GeoPoll can assist
GeoPoll makes a speciality of reaching people who different knowledge assortment strategies miss, gathering direct family enter from hard-to-reach and crisis-affected populations throughout rising markets, quick. This evaluation was fielded over WhatsApp and reached tons of of households inside hours of launch.
We’re sharing this evaluation and the reside dashboard overtly with the aid and help group. The dashboard lets responders filter by state and discover every indicator intimately, and it continues to replace as extra responses arrive. The total dataset will be damaged down by state, municipality, indicator or inhabitants group to match what a given response requires. GeoPoll may area follow-up inquiries to the identical households or launch a brand new fast evaluation inside hours.
Methodology be aware
Mode: WhatsApp self-completion survey. Area interval: 25 June to 11 July 2026, ongoing. Accomplished responses on this report: 846. Instrument: 54 questions in Spanish masking location, felt depth, family casualties, housing, displacement, water, meals, energy, connectivity, roads, hospital entry, fuel and hearth threat, data wants and sources, and demographics.
Evaluation: Figures are unweighted counts and percentages of respondents. Felt depth is self-reported on a 1 to 10 scale; 833 of 846 respondents gave a numeric score. The affect zone contains La Guaira, Capital District (Caracas), Carabobo, Miranda, Aragua and Guárico, outlined for consistency with the primary report. Pressing-medical want was requested solely of households reporting an harm. A small variety of open-ended fields had been coded into themes for the wants evaluation. All charts on this report are generated immediately from the response knowledge.
Limitations: The pattern is self-selected and opt-in, unweighted, skews older and concrete, and broadened in composition as outreach expanded. Households within the worst-hit areas with out energy, sign or a working telephone are underrepresented, so extreme circumstances are extra possible understated than overstated. These knowledge complement, and don’t substitute, official harm and casualty figures.
Ethics: Responses had been collected anonymously. Quotes are printed with out figuring out data. GeoPoll doesn’t publish its personal casualty figures and defers to official sources for lack of life. GeoPoll participates in IRB processes and is a member of ESOMAR, WAPOR, PAMRO and the Society for Worldwide Growth.
