The USDCHF raced higher after the better than expected CPI data. That took the pair to a new 2022 high and to the highest level going back to May 2010 (see daily chart below). The high price today took the price above the swing highs from 2022 at 1.00493 and 1.00637 (from May and June 2022 repectively). The price high today reached 1.0073 before rotating back to the downside.

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the rotation back to the downside picked up steam after falling back below the swing hi from Tuesday’s trade at 1.00203. Momentum took the price right back down to the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below). That level currently comes in at 0.99748. True to the last 3 days of trading, the price was able to dip briefly below the moving average level, but momentum quickly faded and the price rotated back to the upside. The current prices trading at 0.9994.

Going forward, the 100 hour moving average will be the key barometer in the short-term. Stay above and the buyers still remain in control. Move below – and stay below – and we should see further selling momentum.

Downside targets would have traders looking toward the swing area defined by swing highs on September 26, 28th, and again on October 3, October 7 all between 0.99498 and 0.99647.

Below that, and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 30 low at 0.99443 will be eyed followed by the 200 hour moving average currently comes in at 0.9919 (and moving higher). The price moved above the 200 hour moving average and the 100 hour moving average at the same level back on October 6 near 0.9848, and has not traded below the level since that day.