It’s the sports day holiday in Japan and the #1 spectator sport in the FX world is guessing with the Japanese ministry of finance will be forced to do another round of intervention.

They struck in late September after USD/JPY rose to 145.90 on a squeeze above the figure. The pair is up 15 pips today to 145.46.

The most-recent data shows that Japan spent about $20 billion propping up the yen in what was the first move in that direction since 1998.

The top currency official is Masato Kanda and he said in September that the government was taking ‘bold action’ and said the moves had been sudden and one-sided.

After two weeks of consolidation is let less ‘sudden’ and ‘one sided’?

The US dollar has been strengthening broadly at the same time and that could offer more leeway as well. But if they don’t defend 145/46 does that bring a quick move to 150 into play?

It’s all a bit of a game of chicken but the USD/JPY bulls today are betting against imminent intervention.