I remain very bullish on oil/gas.

• Exports are hitting record amounts: Graph. "Crude shipments climbed 21% last week to an all-time high of 4.55 million barrels a day while total petroleum exports also hit a record." Article
• Exports are rising in part because of Russia throttling gas to Europe, a trend getting worse this week with even more cuts by Gazprom. America is filling that gap with record LNG shipping.
• The spreads between US Brent and the global WTI is reaching historically high levels. This implies "Traders can profit more from each American barrel shipped to energy-starved Europe and elsewhere. The spread this week blew out to a level not seen since 2020, incentivizing exports that are already at a record."
• Crisis in S. Asia is even worse than in Europe. Article. The depreciation of the local currencies relative to the USD is making the cost of oil prohibitively high. Here is the cost of oil in Pakistan's local currency. Demand isn't going to just shut off, and currently, there are active blackouts on a regular basis in Pakistan (220 million population), Bangledesh (160 million population), and even worse, Sri Lanka (27 million population). Banks and other countries are demanding upfront payments and raising lending rates in order to give oil to these countries. This is sparking protests, instability, and in Sri Lanka, near collapse of the state.
• Germany continues to refuse to reverse its cuts to nuclear power, and is relying even more on dirty coal to generate power.
• The full strength of the sanctions hasn't even kicked in on Russian oil, and as they do, the Russian ability to even supply oil will fall due to a lack of access to Western services/equipment that it lacks. Read about the erosion of Russian exports here. "The nation’s shipments to buyers have declined for five consecutive weeks, taking them down by 480,000 barrels a day, or 13%, since mid-June. That's based on a rolling four-week average that helps to provide a better picture of the trend than the observation of flows from one week to the next." Yes, this decline includes Asia, so it's not just getting offset. "Shipments to China and India are down by somewhere between 15% and almost 40% from their post-invasion peak."

The financials tell one story: we could have a 2008, oil could collapse like other commodities. The fundamentals (which I barely even touched on in this comment), future refining capacity, geopolitical situation continue to present a very strong bull case over the next 2 years. Oil is highly volatile and will collapse every now and then, but the reality that human life depends on oil/gas, yet we lack the capability to build it to the excesses of the past. Cheap oil is not a given, as 2022 shows.