The ISM services survey is one of the best forward-looking metrics of US economic strength and it was surprisingly strong in September at 56.7 vs 56.0 expected.

That news sent the US dollar higher across the board and to session highs. EUR/USD is now down 129 pips to 0.9856.

The takeaway is that the Fed won’t need to pivot just yet. The odds of just a 50 bps hike in November are down to 20% from 25% yesterday. The terminal top is now back up to 4.49% in March from 4.40% earlier this week.