Whether the Fed ends at 4.50-4.75% or 4.75-5.00% is immaterial but a strong jobs report today raised the chances that the hiking cycle restarts next year.
The easiest way to see that is in the 2-year note yield, which is trading below the Fed terminal rate but does a good job of indicating the highs. Earlier today we tested the Sept peak but have backed off from 4.35% down to 4.29%.
With this decline, the dollar is backing off the from the highs as well but the conversation to monitor is whether the Fed will need to hike more in 2023.
