by confoundedinterest17

The US financial system has a case of {the summertime} blues.

Bull steepenings within the yield curve are typically seen as a precursor to a recession, however they’re usually preceded by bear steepenings. The 3m30y curve is at present bear steepening, indicating a recession might start as early because the summer season. The truth is, the 3m30y curve is now inverted at -94.628 foundation factors pointing to a recession in summer season 2023.

That is occurring because the US home fee to earnings ratio close to all-time highs.