Commonplace Chartered has lowered its end-2026 value goal for Solana to $250, down from $310, whereas leaving its longer-dated trajectory intact. The financial institution’s roadmap nonetheless factors to $2,000 by 2030 because the financial institution argues the chain’s exercise combine is rotating away from memecoin-led buying and selling towards stablecoin-based micropayments.
The revised forecast comes because the financial institution’s digital belongings analysis crew frames the present drawdown as a interval when “efficiency differentiation” throughout crypto ought to turn into extra seen, reasonably than a tape the place every little thing trades as a single danger bucket.
Why Commonplace Chartered Lowers The 2026 Solana Goal, Boosts Lengthy View
Behind the 2026 haircut is a extra skeptical view on how rapidly Solana can convert its value and throughput benefits into sustained, fee-generating financial exercise past speculative bursts. In Commonplace Chartered’s telling, Solana is in the course of a story transition that’s strategically engaging however not instantaneous in market phrases.
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Geoffrey Kendrick, Commonplace Chartered’s head of worldwide digital belongings analysis, anchored the shift in decentralized alternate (DEX) movement composition. “Once we initiated protection of Solana in Might 2025, we noticed that exercise on the community was largely concentrated in memecoin buying and selling on DEXs.” “Composition of DEX flows has shifted from memecoin buying and selling towards SOL–stablecoin pairs.”
That rotation, Kendrick argued, accelerated over 2025 as capital moved away from meme-focused exercise which he stated peaked in mid-January across the launch of the Trump token and towards tokenized {dollars}. The implication is that Solana’s DEX exercise is starting to resemble a payments-adjacent rail greater than a single-cycle on line casino, even when total volumes have cooled.
Commonplace Chartered additionally flagged Solana’s ultra-low transaction prices as a key enabler for “micropayment” use instances, together with AI-driven funds, the place even modest price overhead can break unit economics.
One of many extra hanging metrics within the report is stablecoin turnover: Kendrick stated stablecoin velocity on Solana is already two to a few instances larger than on Ethereum, suggesting Solana could also be carving out a definite position for high-frequency, low-value transfers.
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The financial institution tied that chance to “internet-native” fee protocols akin to Coinbase-backed x402, whereas cautioning that the repositioning will take time to translate into market management.
That slower timeline is a part of why Commonplace Chartered expects Solana to lag Ethereum within the 2026–2027 window, even because the financial institution turns into extra constructive on Solana’s longer-run upside if micropayment demand compounds.
Regardless of trimming the 2026 goal, Commonplace Chartered’s longer-term schedule stays aggressive: $400 in 2027, $700 in 2028, $1,200 in 2029, and $2,000 by end-2030, based on reporting by The Block. The financial institution’s framework implies that Solana’s “micropayments” section is predicted to matter extra because the cycle matures, with Kendrick additionally projecting Solana to outperform Bitcoin over 2027–2030.
At press time, SOL traded at $96.93.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
