Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite tv for pc firm SpaceX is planning a $75 billion IPO in June, which might make it the biggest near-term public itemizing with a serious Bitcoin treasury.
Key takeaways:
- A Nasdaq 100 quick entry might broaden Bitcoin publicity among the many prime mega-cap shares, together with Tesla.
- The IPO could strain tech shares as passive funds promote current Nasdaq names to purchase SpaceX, which can show bearish for Bitcoin.
SpaceX IPO set to extend Nasdaq’s publicity to Bitcoin
SpaceX disclosed 18,712 BTC in its current S-1 submitting, value roughly $1.45 billion, making it the biggest identified Bitcoin holder amongst firms making ready for, or not too long ago submitting for, a public itemizing.
Supply: SpaceX’s S1 Submitting
Below Nasdaq’s newer “quick entry” guidelines, mega-cap IPOs can enter the Nasdaq 100 inside 15 buying and selling days, which means SpaceX might rapidly turn into one of many index’s largest constituents if its valuation lands close to the $1.75 trillion–$2 trillion vary after the $75 billion IPO.
Because of this, Bitcoin publicity contained in the Nasdaq 100 could broaden past Tesla.
The electrical carmaker already holds 11,509 BTC on its stability sheet. SpaceX, with 18,712 BTC, would give the Nasdaq 100 a second Elon Musk-linked mega-cap firm with direct Bitcoin publicity.
“With the SpaceX IPO, the Magazine 7 will turn into the Magazine 8,” mentioned Phong Le, CEO of Technique, whereas referring to the elite group of mega-cap tech shares, specifically Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla.
He added:
“25% of the Magazine 8 may have Bitcoin on their stability sheet.”
Bitcoin nonetheless faces draw back dangers
SpaceX IPO could also be “unhealthy information for tech shares,” in accordance with analyst Nic Puckrin.
“If it is added to the Nasdaq 100 in a ‘quick entry’, passive funds have to purchase it & promote different inventory,” Puckrin mentioned in a Friday publish, including:
“The upper SpaceX goes, the extra they purchase of it and promote of others. It is going to act like an enormous capital vacuum.”
Puckrin primarily based his outlook on JPMorgan estimates displaying that Nvidia might face greater than $20 billion in passive outflows if SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100.
JPMorgan projections for rebalancing outflows from passive traders. Supply: Monetary Instances/Nic Puckrin
Apple might face roughly $16 billion in estimated passive outflows, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla additionally prone to function funding sources for the SpaceX rebalance.
Bitcoin has traded intently with mega-cap tech for many of 2026.
As of Friday, BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the Magazine 7 shares, stood close to +0.81.
BTC/USD vs. MAGS correlation coefficient. Supply: TradingView
For merchants, which means BTC has not too long ago moved in the identical course as main tech shares as a rule.
So, if the SpaceX rebalance pressures Nvidia, Apple, Tesla and different giant tech names, Bitcoin might also face short-term draw back threat as traders cut back publicity to the broader risk-on commerce.
How low can BTC worth go?
On-chain metrics present Bitcoin’s obvious demand has dropped to its lowest in 4 months, which can result in months of consolidation.
That weak demand backdrop additionally strains up with BTC’s present technical construction. Since February, Bitcoin has been transferring inside an upward-sloping bear flag, a sample that usually kinds throughout a pause in a broader downtrend.
For now, BTC’s instant draw back goal sits across the $73,000–$74,000 vary, close to the flag’s decrease trendline. A rebound from that space might ship the value again towards the flag’s higher boundary close to $85,000.
BTC/USD each day chart. Supply: TradingView
Associated: Bitcoin liquidity stability hints at growing rally towards $80K
The flag setup might open the door to a deeper decline towards $56,000, primarily based on the sample’s measured transfer, if BTC closes decisively below the decrease pattern line.
