Does everyone know this?
Scholz is taking heat for his government’s €200 billion subsidy program for energy prices and its potential beggar-thy-neighbour effects. He said “I am sure that everyone knows that such measures are necessary and will have to be taken everywhere.”
The problem is that some countries can’t afford it; or they won’t be able to afford it over time. The ECB is slowly pulling the rug out from underneath the European bond market and there are going to be some hard lessons and choices.
Scholz emphasized that Germany is economically strong and can afford it. That’s true but it’s not the case everywhere and many countries don’t realize how long this will take to fix.
Europe is talking about some kind of gas-buying cartel with Korea and Japan but that’s a pipe dream. Oil could also be a fresh headwind and a diesel shortage looms. With Nordstream now destroyed, there’s no fix for 2023 and materially less supply available.
Some joint energy procurement might help but LNG is in demand all over the world and there’s not much supply coming online until 2025-26.
Scholz is also talking about long-term LNG procurement but also about getting off fossil fuels. Exporters want 30-year contracts and the EU doesn’t like that idea so there’s some real dissonance here.
One bit of good news is that TTF prices have come down but I suspect that will only last as long as there’s no call on supply from cold weather.
