Bearish tendencies in lithium.

I’ve wrote about this earlier than (see thread right here), however the supply-side of Lithium mining seems to be booming with new mines coming on-line all around the world. It is more and more seen as a vital metallic and due to this fact is getting extra greenlighted provide around the globe. Graphic of latest provide by 2025 and up to date manufacturing enlargement.

Analysts at Fastmarkets NewGen estimate world lithium manufacturing surged by 36% year-on-year in 2021 and anticipate whole provide will rise from 540,400 tonnes of LCE in 2021 to greater than three million tonnes by 2030.

I might fairly keep on with copper, whose outlook appears to be like a lot brighter as a result of future provide deficits.

The previous few days noticed optimistic value outlooks for copper being introduced by Trafigura and Goldman Sachs, together with G&R of their quarterly letter. Trafigura factors on the market are solely 3.5 days of stock for copper, which may be very tight by historic requirements (the quantity ought to be extra like 10-20 days). In the meantime there continues to be main shortfalls in manufacturing due to political instability in Peru.

Jeff Currie:

“On copper, the ahead outlook is very postive. We’ll be on the lowest observable inventories which have ever been recorded at 125,000 tonnes. We’ve got peak provide occuring in 2024…Close to time period we put (the copper value) at $10,500 and long term our value goal is $15,000 a tonne.”

Right here is Jeff Currie’s longer report about copper.

Trafigura:

The co-head of metals and minerals on the world’s largest copper dealer mentioned on Monday the copper value might hit a brand new file excessive inside the subsequent 12 months owing to very tight shares, even above $12,000 a tonne.

“I might spotlight copper as probably the most vital metallic globally given the scarcity available in the market. We solely had 3.5 days of copper inventory equal on the finish of final 12 months,” Trafigura’s Kostas Bintas instructed the FT Commodities International Summit.

March 14th:

International copper inventories held in warehouses monitored by the London Steel Change (LME) hit the bottom in 17 years final month

Rio Tinto sees a optimistic short-term outlook as properly, regardless of all of the concern the previous few weeks and muted China restoration. We see proof of the latter as a result of China smelters are exporting extra of their copper they do not want.

Extra usually, listed here are the inventories for base metals, together with copper. There was a secular drawdown because the GFC restoration, and the one treatment for that is greater costs. From G&R:

Since peaking at 9 mm tonnes of stock in Q1 2013, base metals inventories have drawn steadily and are down 90% as we speak. Immediately, trade inventories have fallen under 1 mm tonnes and are dangerously low. Adjusted for days of consumption, inventories have by no means been decrease. In This fall 2022, trade metallic stock lined day by day consumption by solely 2.7 days, surpassing 45% of the lows seen in 2005-2006 of roughly 5 days and reaching the lows seen 35 years in the past again in 1988-1989.

What has occurred when inventories grew to become this low prior to now?

In 2006 trade inventories fell to briefly 1 mm tonnes, and when adjusted by days of consump- tion, inventories had fallen to lower than 5 days of consumption—the bottom ranges since 1990. And identical to within the late Nineteen Eighties, base metals costs skilled a large surge. From the tip of 2004 to the start of 2006, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc costs surged between 300% and 400%.

Here’s a remark of mine with hyperlinks to numerous free sources to examine commodities.