(WO) – Missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Metropolis are anticipated to have a chronic impression on international LNG provide, with restoration timelines now prone to lengthen effectively past preliminary expectations, based on new evaluation from Wooden Mackenzie.
The assaults broken key infrastructure, together with the Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility and a number of LNG trains, following earlier disruptions that had already halted manufacturing. Qatar declared power majeure in early March, eradicating roughly 80 MMtpa of LNG provide—practically 20% of world availability—from the market.
Early projections had assumed a comparatively swift restart, with full manufacturing ramping up inside weeks. Nevertheless, Wooden Mackenzie now expects a considerably longer restoration interval, relying on the extent of injury and required repairs.
A chronic outage may materially tighten international gasoline markets. Qatar produced a median of 6.7 MMt of LNG per thirty days in 2025, which means even a five- to six-month disruption would push international provide into year-on-year decline. Every extra month of downtime may take away roughly 1.5% of annual LNG availability.
The disruption additionally threatens to delay Qatar’s North Discipline East enlargement, which was anticipated so as to add 32 MMtpa of capability. Any slippage into 2027 or past may constrain international LNG provide development via 2028.
Asian patrons, which account for roughly 90% of Qatar’s LNG exports, are anticipated to be most affected, with demand prone to weaken amid larger costs. In Europe, decreased LNG availability might restrict storage injections and speed up gas switching.
Operators globally are anticipated to defer upkeep and maximize output the place attainable, as markets alter to decreased provide and heightened geopolitical threat.
Map supply: International Power Infrastructure.
