Non-farm payrolls monthly
- Consensus estimate +250K
- Private +265K
- August +315K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.7% vs 3.7% prior
- Participation rate prior 62.4%
- Prior underemployment U6 7.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +5.1% y/y vs +5.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
Here’s the September jobs picture so far:
- ADP employment 200K vs 208K expected under new methodology
- ISM manufacturing employment 48.7 vs 53.0 prior
- Challenger Job Cuts rose 29.99K vs 20.48K prior
- Philly employment 12.0 vs 24.1 prior
- Empire employment -1.5 vs -13.0 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 193K vs 237K a month ago
- ISM services employment 53.0 vs 50.2 prior
- August JOLTS 10.05m vs 10.775m expected
This is a big one.
The market right now is more sensitive to economic data than any time I’ve seen since 2007-2010. Every number is a market mover and only inflation numbers matter more right now that jobs.
A strong report will push up rate expectations and prolong the rate hiking cycle while a soft reading will kick off another ‘Fed pivot’ trade. It’s a very fine line that will depend on headline jobs, unemployment and earnings metrics.
Lately, we’ve seen much larger swings related to soft data rather than strong data so I think there’s a market skew, though after the rips in risk trades this week that may no longer be the case.
Once we get past this one, the market will start to buzz about the Thurs, Oct 13 release of the September CPI repot. The early consensus is a 0.2% m/m reading.
