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Right here’s a visible from a undertaking modeling LNG vessel redeployment utilizing survival evaluation. Principally, the time between an LNG vessel leaving a vacation spot port and subsequent leaving a load port (a restrict of the LNG movement tracker supplied by Sign Group).The pattern is vessels that discharged in China, Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan after which reloaded at Gladstone, Australia — so the curves are conditional on a Gladstone reload. Explanatory variables are ahead JKM costs (M1–M2) and Gladstone–Tokyo spherical voyage freight assessments (each from the Australian ACCC netback sequence, which republishes ICE/Argus information). The survival curves are break up by quartiles of operator frailty, displaying how some transport firms constantly redeploy sooner or slower even after accounting for spreads. This sort of modeling is likely to be helpful for anticipating when provide can be on the transfer once more — particularly previous to ships leaving a vacation spot port the place AIS information has much less predictive energy. submitted by /u/contangcom |
