Well, here we go. Sterling is now nudging higher as there is word on the street that the government may look to perform ‘the mother of all U-turns on the mini-budget’, despite having earlier brushed aside talk of that here.

There was already a hint to the move earlier from gilts, as was tipped by our friend PiQ in this earlier post. It looks like the government is the one causing the ripples. Here’s the source tweet for this post:

A former cabinet minister tells me: “Brace for the mother of all U-Turns on the mini budget today. A friendly person in the know is advising us to steer clear of the media today to avoid the explosion. We wouldn’t want to look silly by tomorrow.” #waitandsee

— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) October 13, 2022

That’s going to be real interesting but keep in mind, for now this is all talk still. There’s also added context here:

Downing Street denying any changes to mini budget but I’m told by sources discusssions underway over which bits might yet be junked give the scale of the concern

Looking at a return to the mandate from the leadership contest

No clarity on timing of announcement if it happens

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) October 13, 2022

So far, gilts aren’t responding too much with 30-year yields still holding down about 30 bps to 4.57% at the moment.

Update: GBP/USD
GBP/USD

The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity and a low spread. Whilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking, the GBP/USD often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range, making it a decent candidate for scalping. The GBP/USD pair, also informally known as “cable” (due to transatlantic cables being used to transmit its exchange rate via telegraph back in the 19th century) has a positive correlation with the EUR/USD, and a negative correlation with the USD/CHF. Trading the GBP/USDWhilst a lot of traders and even brokers will assert that the best time to trade the GBP/USD is during its most active hours during London and New York, doing so can be a double-edged sword due to the often-unpredictable nature of the pair. Its volatility also fluctuates often, and so what could be a profitable looking strategy one month, may not be so productive in later months. In addition, purely technical traders can really struggle to be consistent with this pair, (i.e. by ignoring fundamentals), due to the unique political nature of the United Kingdom. The recent drama surrounding Brexit has added another layer of uncertainty to this currency pair. With a smooth resolution not in the cards for the foreseeable future, it is clear the GBP/USD will be influenced by any developments and negotiations with the European Union.

The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity and a low spread. Whilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking, the GBP/USD often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range, making it a decent candidate for scalping. The GBP/USD pair, also informally known as “cable” (due to transatlantic cables being used to transmit its exchange rate via telegraph back in the 19th century) has a positive correlation with the EUR/USD, and a negative correlation with the USD/CHF. Trading the GBP/USDWhilst a lot of traders and even brokers will assert that the best time to trade the GBP/USD is during its most active hours during London and New York, doing so can be a double-edged sword due to the often-unpredictable nature of the pair. Its volatility also fluctuates often, and so what could be a profitable looking strategy one month, may not be so productive in later months. In addition, purely technical traders can really struggle to be consistent with this pair, (i.e. by ignoring fundamentals), due to the unique political nature of the United Kingdom. The recent drama surrounding Brexit has added another layer of uncertainty to this currency pair. With a smooth resolution not in the cards for the foreseeable future, it is clear the GBP/USD will be influenced by any developments and negotiations with the European Union.
Read this Term now climbing above 1.1200, up 1% on the day.