Permian Sources Company (NYSE:PR) Q2 2023 Earnings Convention Name August 3, 2023 11:00 AM ET

Firm Members

Hays Mabry – Senior Director, Investor Relations

Will Hickey – Chief Government Officer

James Walter – Chief Government Officer

Man Oliphint – Chief Monetary Officer

Matt Garrison – Chief Working Officer

Convention Name Members

Neal Dingmann – Truist Securities

Zach Parham – JPMorgan

Geoff Jay – Daniel Vitality Companions

Paul Diamond – Citi

Subash Chandra – Benchmark

Josh Silverstein – UBS

Operator

Good morning. And welcome to Permian Sources Convention Name to debate its Second Quarter 2023 Earnings. At this time’s name is being recorded. A replay of the decision shall be accessible till August 16, 2023 by dialing 877-674-7070 and coming into the replay entry code 908236 or by visiting the corporate’s web site at www.permianres.com.

Presently, I’ll flip the decision over to Hays Mabry, Permian Sources Senior Director of Investor Relations for some opening remarks. Please go forward.

Hays Mabry

Thanks, Tina. And thanks all for becoming a member of us on the corporate’s second quarter earnings name. On the decision at present are Will Hickey; and James Walter, our Chief Government Officer; Man Oliphint, our Chief Monetary Officer; and Matt Garrison, our Chief Working Officer.

Yesterday, August 2nd, we filed a Kind 8-Ok with an earnings launch reporting first quarter outcomes for the corporate. We additionally posted an earnings presentation to our web site that we’ll reference throughout at present’s name. Yow will discover the presentation on our web site homepage or beneath the Information and Occasions part at www.permianres.com.

I want to notice that most of the feedback throughout this earnings name are forward-looking statements that contain dangers and uncertainties that would have an effect on our precise outcomes and plans. Many of those dangers are past our management and are mentioned in additional element within the threat components and the forward-looking statements sections of our filings with the Securities and Alternate Fee, together with our quarterly report on Kind 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2023, which can also be anticipated to be filed with the SEC later this afternoon. Though we consider the expectations expressed are primarily based on cheap assumptions, they usually are not ensures of future efficiency and precise outcomes or developments could differ materially.

We may additionally seek advice from non-GAAP monetary measures that assist facilitate comparisons throughout durations and with our friends. For any non-GAAP measure we use, a reconciliation to the closest corresponding GAAP measure could be present in our earnings launch or presentation, that are each out there on our web site.

With that, I’ll flip the decision over to Will Hickey, Co-CEO.

Will Hickey

Thanks, Hays. This quarter represents our fourth consecutive quarter of robust execution since asserting the merger and forming Permian Sources and we’re nonetheless getting higher every single day. Throughout Q2, we grew manufacturing by 8% from Q1 pushed by sturdy second quarter properly outcomes. We dropped from seven to 6 rigs as a result of continued enchancment in D&C efficiencies and we proceed to ship on our return of capital framework. Our staff continues to get higher in executing the sector and we stay on monitor to realize our full yr and fourth quarter targets.

Our belongings proceed to carry out, as you may see on slide 5 and from our Q2 manufacturing numbers. Wells positioned on-line throughout the first half of the yr are performing in step with 2022 outcomes and we anticipate constant efficiency over the rest of the yr.

That is no shock as our large-scale multi-bench improvement philosophy has not modified and we’re growing the identical targets in the identical areas as final yr. Stated in a different way, our 2023 improvement plan is basically the very same plan we prosecuted in 2022 and what you need to anticipate to see from us going ahead.

On the operations facet, our staff continues to get higher quarter-over-quarter by rising efficiencies, leading to lowered cycle instances and decrease prices.

Our drilling division has additional lowered flat instances by optimizing our backside gap assemblies and excessive grading our rig fleet. In the course of the quarter, we drilled a median of 1,165 toes per day and set an organization report by drilling a 2-mile Third Bone Spring Sand Nicely in Eddy County in slightly below 11 days. Equally, on the completion facet, we have been in a position to full a median of 1,800 toes per day pushed by will increase — rising in pumping hours per day on our two devoted frac fleets.

Lastly, we’ve got considerably expanded our water recycling efforts throughout each Texas and New Mexico. In the course of the quarter, our completions staff utilized 60% recycled water throughout its completion operations.

To place our year-to-date water recycling efforts into perspective, by means of the primary six months of the yr, Permian Sources has already pumped extra recycled water than each predecessor firms mixed throughout all of final yr. This not solely advances our sustainability initiatives, but additionally gives each CapEx and LOE financial savings.

We are going to proceed to make use of recycled water every time attainable in our operations. This degree of execution is a testomony to the standard of our operations staff and we’ll proceed to push for extra and I really feel assured that we’ve got the staff in place to have the ability to execute on this purpose.

Now trying ahead, we’re persevering with to work throughout your entire provide chain to additional drive down prices as we head into subsequent yr. With what we all know at present, we anticipate higher than 10% value deflation on a per lateral foot foundation when evaluating from the beginning of this yr to the beginning of 2024. This paired with our asset high quality and constant improvement philosophy bodes properly for 2024 capital effectivity.

With that, I’ll flip it over to Man to cowl monetary outcomes and capital returns for the quarter.

Man Oliphint

Thanks, Will. We proceed to ship on our 2023 plan with whole firm manufacturing of 156 MBOE per day, oil manufacturing of 84 MBO per day and money capital expenditures of $371 million. Manufacturing development of 8% over Q1 was a results of robust Q2 properly outcomes.

The corporate generated adjusted EBITDAX of $492 million for the quarter. LOE was $5.50 per BOE, GP&T was $1.44 per BOE and money G&A was $1.17 per BOE. LOE per BOE was 2% larger than Q1, largely resulting from larger water disposal prices following our SWD divestiture that we closed in March. As a reminder, we obtained $125 million of whole money consideration for that sale at closing.

GP&T was larger than Q1 because of sure pads approaching in larger GP&T areas. G&A declined on each a per unit foundation and an absolute foundation pushed by our relentless give attention to lowering prices in our larger sequential manufacturing.

We reported adjusted free money move of $80 million on a money CapEx foundation. Accrued CapEx for the quarter was $386 million, leading to $65 million of adjusted free money move on an accrued foundation.

As we mentioned in Q1, we’ve got utilized the money CapEx determine to calculate our variable dividend as we consider it higher aligns with our give attention to money returns. We reported $0.14 per share of adjusted free money move on a money CapEx foundation and $0.27 per share of adjusted web earnings.

As you may see on slide 4, we’re delivering $57 million of whole shareholder returns in Q2. Our calculation begins with adjusted free money move of $80 million. We lowered that quantity by our $0.05 per share base quarterly dividend or $28 million.

We’ve dedicated to pay 50% of the rest of free money move to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. This quarter, we’re attaining that concentrate on with a variable dividend of $0.05 per share.

Turning to slip eight. We stay targeted on sustaining a powerful stability sheet that helps strategic flexibility, in addition to our shareholder return program. We’ve no near-term maturities and properly over $1 billion of liquidity on our RBL. We anticipate to proceed to make the most of free money move to cut back web debt over time.

Our hedge abstract is included within the appendix, the place you will notice we’ve got hedges in place for about 30% of our anticipated crude oil manufacturing for the rest of the yr at a weighted common flooring value of roughly $82. These hedges are in step with our current hedging technique and per our need to have the ability to act opportunistically within the occasion of a downturn.

With that, I’ll flip it over to James.

James Walter

Thanks, Man. We’re proud to report that we’ve got continued to make progress in the direction of our purpose of being the bottom value operator within the Permian. We attempt to be an trade chief throughout your entire value construction, D&C, LOE, G&A and finally value of capital.

Slide seven highlights our continued quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year enchancment in G&A per BOE. We’ve lowered G&A per BOE by roughly 40% when in comparison with Centennial’s standalone quarter in Q2 2022. This enchancment in G&A from $1.95 per BOE to $1.17 resulted in an incremental $12 million of free money move for the quarter.

Not solely have we improved in comparison with our historic efficiency, we’ve got rapidly jumped to a number one place in comparison with our friends, however on a G&A per BOE foundation, in addition to a G&A per operated foundation, which is an additional testomony to our proficient staff and extremely environment friendly operations. Our staff is all the time on the lookout for properly efficiencies throughout our complete value construction to additional improve our free money move and drive worth for shareholders.

I’d like to shut our ready remarks at present by turning to slip 9, the place we offer a fast recap of the targets we set out earlier within the yr and our progress in opposition to these targets at present. First, because of our sturdy and constant properly efficiency, we stay on monitor to ship peer-leading natural oil manufacturing development of 10% exit-to-exit or over 15% on a full yr professional forma foundation.

Two, we proceed to execute on all spectrums of our capital return program, returning roughly $200 million or $0.35 per share to shareholders by means of our base dividend variable dividend and share repurchase program.

Three, by means of the mix of shared greatest practices and operational execution, we’ve got pushed important operational efficiencies, which have lowered our general value construction, lowered cycle instances and finally made our enterprise extra capital environment friendly.

4, we proceed to optimize our portfolio, driving significant worth for shareholders. Between bolt-on acquisitions and our energetic floor sport, we’ve got acquired over 5,000 top quality acres offsetting our place within the core of the Delaware. We’ve additionally efficiently divested non-core SWD belongings in Reeves County for $125 million, representing a major premium to our present buying and selling a number of.

Lastly, however maybe most significantly, we’ve got executed the entire above whereas sustaining a powerful stability sheet with ample liquidity, which is able to enable our enterprise to thrive and create outsized shareholder worth in any commodity value surroundings.

We’re enthusiastic about the place the enterprise stands at present and really feel like we’ve got important momentum as we head into the again half of the yr. Our staff has come collectively properly and we proceed to execute on the plan we laid out to start out the yr. We’re properly positioned to generate sturdy free money move and ship important returns to shareholders, whereas maximizing long-term valuation.

Lastly, as we put out in our press launch yesterday afternoon, it’s price noting that Matt Garrison, our Chief Working Officer, shall be departing the corporate on September 1st for private causes. As I sit right here within the commentary with Matt, on what could be his final earnings name, it’s price taking a second to replicate on the great contribution that has made to Permian Sources.

He has proven unbelievable dedication and management to this firm, each throughout the previous yr, Permian Sources, in addition to the prior 6 years at our predecessor, Centennial. Will, myself and your entire Permian Sources staff have loved rolling up our sleeves and dealing alongside Matt. He’s been an ideal contributor, enterprise accomplice and buddy.

From an organizational standpoint, Matt’s direct operational stories will report back to Will Hickey going ahead. With Will’s operational background, this shall be a pure match and one thing we’re all enthusiastic about as it should enable for extra streamlined communication and faster decision-making between the sector and the CEO.

In closing, I’d prefer to once more thank Matt for all the things he’s completed at PR. We are going to miss him going ahead to want him and his household the very best sooner or later.

Thanks for listening and now I’ll flip it again to the Operator for Q&A.

Query-and-Reply Session

Operator

Thanks. [Operator Instructions] And your first query comes from the road of Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities. Please go forward.

Neal Dingmann

Good morning, guys. My — good quarter. My first query is on slide 5. By taking a look at this and even the final couple of quarters, actually seems you all proceed to see some very robust properly consistency. I’m simply questioning, are you able to communicate to what’s driving this, is it the goal of the important thing intervals or your spacing or completions because it seems to be just like the wells proceed to be very constant each on a manufacturing and GOR foundation?

Will Hickey

Yeah. Thanks, Neal. I imply, actually, I feel, what’s driving it’s that we haven’t considerably or actually in any respect modified any of these belongings you listed. We simply — we’re in a lucky place that we’ve got obtained a deep bench of stock to sort of maintain doing what we’ve got all the time completed.

So we’re nonetheless drilling those self same targets in the identical areas and we’ve got made little tweaks to completion designs to attempt to drive some value, however nothing that’s had any sort of any change to productiveness. So sort of the brief story is we’re simply doing what we’ve got all the time completed and that is what you need to anticipate for the subsequent few years going ahead.

Neal Dingmann

Yeah. It’s nice to see the consistency. After which my second query is on the OFS value and operational efficiencies. I’m simply questioning you talked about on slide six. the place you could have excessive graded the variety of your D&C providers. I’m simply questioning, while you do that, are you seeing as a lot potential value to put on the excessive spec tools as you may see on the lesser high quality facet and what sort of enchancment or outcomes do you all see, I suppose, what I’m asking is like, what’s the benefit of going to the excessive spec if doubtlessly perhaps see some decrease value on a few of the lesser tools?

Will Hickey

No. I feel that’s proper. I feel sort of throughout the trade, we’ve got seen that prices have come down on the low-spec stuff first and the hope is that we’ll begin to drive some value down on the excessive spec stuff sort of between now and the top of the yr.

Actually, what we’ve got seen is simply our skill to sort of proceed to cut back cycle instances and lower days out on the drilling intent facet, sort of greater than offsets that web site premium we’ve got to pay for that tools.

However as we’ve got all the time been, I imply, we’re all the time sort of evaluating what that equation seems to be like, what the sort of general value construction seems to be like with excessive spec versus decrease spec, and hopefully, we’ll sort of proceed to each lower days and perhaps get some sort of value reductions on the excessive spec stuff between now and the start of subsequent yr.

Neal Dingmann

Nice particulars. Thanks, Will.

Will Hickey

Thanks.

Operator

Thanks. And your subsequent query comes from the road of Zach Parham from JPMorgan. Please go forward.

Zach Parham

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my query. I suppose, first, simply on the manufacturing trajectory. You all reaffirmed the exit fee on oil development steering. Are you able to speak just a little bit about what 3Q seems to be like, simply attempting to get a way of the place manufacturing goes from right here?

Will Hickey

Yeah. Certain. So I feel the experience so 3Q shall be sort of low single-digit development proportion from the place we have been in Q2 after which barely extra sort of larger proportion development from This fall to Q3 to sort of finally get to that This fall exit fee that we mentioned initially of the yr.

Zach Parham

Acquired it. Thanks, Will. I suppose simply following up on Neal’s query on value deflation. We’ve heard others point out 5% to 7% decrease year-over-year properly prices in 2024. Does that quantity appear cheap to you, perhaps are you able to simply speak by means of what you’re seeing on value deflation now and if you’re seeing any substantial declines on any of the bigger ticket objects?

Will Hickey

Yeah. I imply, I feel that we might be on the excessive finish of that vary primarily based on what we’re seeing at present, primarily pushed by simply two-wheelers and casing. I imply, we are able to level to sort of 5% discount primarily based on the casing we’re buying at present, which is able to finally run in Q1.

So we’ve got sort of obtained 5% within the bag and now we’re beginning to chip away at issues on the completion facet and sort of different sort of effective objects throughout the entire AFE. So I feel primarily based on what we’re seeing at present, we’ve got obtained sort of good line of sight to 10% and I’m hoping we are able to sort of name again extra between at times and hopefully beat that quantity once we get to subsequent yr.

Zach Parham

Thanks, Will. That’s nice colour.

Will Hickey

Yeah.

Operator

Thanks. And your subsequent query comes from the road of Geoff Jay from Daniel Vitality Companions. Please go forward.

Geoff Jay

Hey, guys. I used to be simply curious, there’s been a whole lot of commentary on a few of the different calls about M&A within the Permian specifically, with I suppose, kind of the notion that it’s fairly picked over and that what’s left, there’s not rather a lot left within the until and I do know you guys are sort of all seeing on this entrance. So I used to be questioning what your sense of the land or land was there?

Will Hickey

Yeah. I imply, I feel, beginning with the grassroots effort that I feel our staff does extremely properly, like we’re nonetheless discovering nice alternatives sort of suppose smaller blocking and tackling acquisitions forward the drill bit, and as you noticed, we did that on this quarter.

We’ve actually completed that each quarter for eight years and one thing we’re extremely assured we are able to proceed to do. And look, these are a few of the most extremely engaging, highest fee of return acquisitions that we are able to discover.

I feel on greater stuff, there’s nonetheless stuff on the market, I feel, you could have seen a whole lot of transactions within the Permian. I feel it’s secure to say we’re taking a look at all the things, however as we’ve got stated earlier than, we’ve got obtained a very good enterprise and that units the bar for acquisitions actually excessive.

I’d say we’ve got obtained one of many highest high quality stock bases on the market. So we’re solely going to do offers that present stock that compete for capital and I feel the higher our enterprise will get, the tougher that’s.

However we’re trying, I feel, if we are able to discover one thing that was accretive, and we have been assured to make our enterprise higher, we might be excited to pursue it. However I feel at this level, we’re additionally very happy to remain on the sidelines and simply maintain engaged on our base enterprise, as a result of it’s so good.

Geoff Jay

Yeah. That’s excellent. Thanks, guys. Recognize it.

Operator

Thanks. And your subsequent query comes from the road of Paul Diamond from Citi. Please go forward.

Paul Diamond

Good morning, all. Thanks for taking my name. Only a fast one, the — you guys famous a 2% improve in LOE on sort of water dealing with bills. I suppose I wished to get an understanding of how sticky we should always take into consideration that or if that pattern ought to go ahead or do you anticipate it to sort of drop again down?

Will Hickey

Yeah. I imply, in order that — particularly, that’s the SWD divestiture. So, clearly, these belongings are bought and in order that a part of it will likely be sticky. However I feel what you’d anticipate from us is, that in all probability places us to the excessive finish of the LOE vary for the again half of this yr.

However as we proceed to sort of develop manufacturing and develop the bottom and simply given the mounted value nature of a few of these LOE prices, I do anticipate sort of as you look out over the subsequent few years, we can drive that down if we do proceed to develop the bottom manufacturing.

Paul Diamond

Understood. Possibly only one fast follow-up. You guys are dropping a rig on effectivity, holding manufacturing regular to up. Simply on a long term, what — are there any bogeys on the market that might have you ever carry again a rig for development, whether or not in 2024 or past is what we have to see so as to sort of make that transfer?

Will Hickey

Yeah. I imply I feel for us we’ve got been fairly clear. We aren’t offering any sort of outlook on to 2024 at this level. I feel we’ve got been actually clear with the market that that’s a call we’ll make as we get nearer to subsequent yr.

I feel for us, as we’ve got stated for the previous 12 months, any sort of selections to extend or lower exercise are going to be pushed by what maximizes near- to mid-term free money move for our buyers.

And I feel at present it’s too early to inform what 2024 seems to be like. I feel with a low service value surroundings and the next commodity value, I feel that in all probability leans in the direction of development and I feel if issues go the opposite means, you can see us dial again exercise.

So I feel at present, it’s too early to inform, however it’s one thing we’re continuously sort of watching and planning round and we’ve got obtained the correct staff within the asset base. We will react rapidly as we put out a plan nearer to subsequent yr.

Paul Diamond

Understood. Thanks for readability.

Operator

Thanks. And your subsequent query comes from the road of Subash Chandra from Benchmark. Please go forward.

Subash Chandra

Yeah. Thanks. Two questions. First is, can we consider 4Q-to-4Q as kind of being the benchmark as you speak about 2024 plans, is that kind of the mathematics we must be taking a look at?

James Walter

The true frank reply is, we put our This fall-to-This fall as a result of we didn’t have a clear, easy professional forma quantity that the market was aware of final yr. I feel once we get to a spot once we begin speaking about out years, I feel, we’ll in all probability shift and begin speaking annual development charges.

I feel that’s less complicated and cleaner and now that we’ll have a full yr beneath our belt at the moment, I feel, that can make much more sense. So I feel This fall-to-This fall made sense sort of given the context of the merger. However as we glance to the longer term, I feel, in all probability, greatest for us and everybody else to start out pondering annual development charges.

Subash Chandra

Acquired it. Okay. My follow-up and we’ve got seen this throughout a number of Permian operators is a little bit of a declining oil lower, a number of causes, however I suppose, in upkeep that must be anticipated, I suppose, however how do you concentrate on that for you guys in 2024?

Will Hickey

I’d anticipate sort of flat oil lower if the sort of commodity value market seems to be prefer it does at present, clearly, we’ve got obtained the asset base that if we noticed a major outperformance of gasoline between at times that we might sort of shift improvement accordingly. However I feel the bottom case is flat oil cuts for 2024.

Subash Chandra

Nice. Good. Thanks a lot.

Will Hickey

You guess.

Operator

Thanks. [Operator Instructions] And your subsequent query comes from the road of Josh Silverstein from UBS. Please go forward.

Josh Silverstein

Thanks. Good morning, guys. We’ve began to listen to some extra Permian provides exit in the direction of 15,000 foot laterals even just a little bit past it. I’m questioning if what you guys have completed, what your common lateral size could also be this yr and what the stock or a few of the longer laterals could seem like?

Will Hickey

Yeah. So our common lateraling to-date this yr is 9,300 toes, which sort of matches. If you happen to take a look at our place on the units up very well for 2-mile improvement throughout the vast majority of our place. So I feel that’s what we’ve got completed over the past two years and that’s what you need to anticipate going ahead.

So far as simply 3-mile laterals on the whole, I feel, within the Delaware Basin, simply given the general productiveness of these wells and the way a lot fluid they make, it’s in all probability barely much less environment friendly than what you’d get on the Midland Basin while you go that lengthy.

Having stated that, we’ve got obtained a staff that may do it. We’ve drilled loads of 2.5-mile laterals this yr and over the — sort of over time. So we’ll maintain watching it, we really feel very assured that if that’s the most capital environment friendly reply that we’ll transfer that path, however I feel as a base case, you need to anticipate we’re sort of a 2-mile improvement firm subsequent yr.

Josh Silverstein

Yeah. Acquired it. Understood. After which simply on the return on capital and money to the stability sheet. You continue to have the 50% plus return on capital framework. Simply given that you simply don’t have any maturity of that till 2026 and ramping free money move and inventory remains to be buying and selling at a low a number of. How do you stability the chance for share repurchases versus simply constructing money, as a result of clearly, you guys are dedicated to the bottom dividend and variable dividend, however simply interested in upside and buybacks versus money readily available? Thanks.

James Walter

Yeah. Certain. No. I feel that’s proper. Clearly, the bottom dividend is what it’s. I feel on the variable versus share buyback, I feel, for us, that’s simply going to be alternative set pushed. We stated earlier than and proceed to say that the default for us goes to be the variable dividend.

However we anticipate to be opportunistic to sort of benefit from alternatives we’ve got on the buyback facet and I feel we haven’t seen that within the final yr, as a result of the inventory has carried out very well. However I feel as we see or if we see clear market dislocations or to sort of effectuate an organized sponsor sell-down, we’re going to lead in exhausting to the buyback.

So I feel I feel you bought it proper. I feel the danger case goes to be the variable dividend. However over time, I anticipate we’ll discover some alternatives and may lean harden the buyback when these alternatives come up.

Josh Silverstein

Nice. Thanks, guys.

James Walter

Thanks.

Operator

Thanks. Mr. Walter, there are not any additional questions at the moment. Please proceed.

James Walter

I’d prefer to conclude at present’s convention name on slide 10, which helps to reemphasize our price proposition for present and future buyers. Since closing our merger nearly a yr in the past, we’ve got delivered main returns for our sector and outperformed the S&P. However we consider that our enterprise continues to signify a compelling worth as in comparison with each our high-quality Permian peer set and the broader market indexes.

We consider that high quality enterprise corresponding to ours with core belongings, natural development, environment friendly operations and powerful monetary positions confirmed to rerate to extra aggressive multiples, not solely with our direct friends, but additionally with different sectors within the broader market. By persevering with to reinforce and domesticate these attributes, we consider that we are able to proceed to create worth for shareholders, whereas solidifying our place as a pacesetter within the vitality sector.

Thanks once more everybody in your time at present.

Operator

Thanks. Women and gents, that does conclude our convention for at present. Thanks all for taking part. It’s possible you’ll all disconnect.