Earlier than we get into October, let’s have a look again at how the seasonals did in September. On the finish of August, I highlighted some tendencies within the month, together with weak spot within the S&P 500 and MSCI world index. Finally, each caught to the seasonal script.
One other one I highlighted was yen weak spot (USD/JPY rose 205 pips within the month). One I discover notably fascinating is NZD/USD power. That historic sample goes in opposition to the standard danger aversion in September and it did as soon as once more this 12 months as NZD/USD made slight positive aspects this month. USD/CAD additionally bucks the development because the loonie usually positive aspects and that was true for many of this month earlier than giving it again within the ultimate day of Sept.
Oil tends to say no in Sept (it actually did not this 12 months) whereas pure gasoline tends to climb (it did this 12 months once more). These tendencies within the vitality market proceed in October, which is a very merciless month for WTI.
Listed here are the seasonal highlights for October 2023 (20 12 months avgs):
- 10-year Treasury yields rise extra in Oct than one other different month
- Third-best month of the 12 months for AUD
- Fourth greatest month for the Greenback Index
- Second-best month for the MSCI world index
- Weakest month for EUR/AUD
- Third weakest month for the euro
- Third-best
month for the Nasdaq (and never far off from the very best), although volatility
is excessive with double digit positive aspects/losses not unusual - Fourth greatest month for the S&P 500
- Third greatest month for the DAX
- Strongest month of the 12 months for pure gasoline
- Weakest month of the 12 months for oil
