NAT GAS: “Unseasonably cold weather events will continue over North America, with a weakened circulation and a disrupted jet stream pattern.” : Commodities

*April Forecast* Weather patterns are now adjusting to the Polar Vortex collapse, creating a weak jet stream as we head deeper into Spring

REGARDING U.S. NAT GAS:

WEEKLY STORAGE REPORT from EIA:

“Working gas in storage was 1,382 Bcf as of Friday, April 1, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 33 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 399 Bcf less than last year at this time and 285 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,667 Bcf.”

MY TAKE:

So, I now have to update my article

https://medium.com/@kenluskin1/u-s-natural-gas-in-storage-will-not-have-a-sufficient-cushion-for-next-winter-the-price-will-acc1a950cab6

because there is a new LOW in storage.

1. Typically Storage is trending UP at this time of year… so this last withdrawal exacerbates the looming epic shortage I am forecasting.

2. It also appears to me that next week’s storage report will be another withdrawal….which is putting the end of season storage amount in an even deeper hole from which to build reserves for next winter.

3. And the colder than normal April will continue = In addition to a low starting point, the injection season is being shortened by this colder than normal April.

4. This last report only serves to reinforce my confidence that an EPIC SHORTAGE of Nat Gas Storage is happening…. AND that the vast majority of Wall St. remains utterly CLUELESS!

5. Once the cold weather finally ends, the consumption by Industrial and Electricity sectors rises from an annual average of 71% to about 90% of total consumption during the injection season.

6. By my calculations, the extra demand growth Year over Year from the Industrial/Electricity sectors will cancel out any increase in Nat Gas production over the next 7 months of the injection season.

7. Additionally, nobody discusses the growing pipeline exports to Mexico, that are equivalent to all the LNG exports to Asia…. Mexico Industrial production has continued to benefit as more companies are building manufacturing plants there instead of in China. Also Mexico has relied more and more cheap Nat Gas from the U.S. to generate electricity, while they export Oil. The equation of 6mmBtu’s of Nat Gas = 1 barrel of Oil, explains why Mexico has been using relatively cheap Nat Gas from the U.S., instead of using their Oil production….. All forecasts are for this trend to continue.

8. LNG export capacity is due to increase by an additional 1 Bcf/day between now and the end of Q3.

BOTTOM LINE:

I continue to see more evidence that an EPIC STORAGE SHORTAGE is developing….

= I see Nat Gas RISING DRAMATICALLY over the next few months

= BUY SJT AGGRESSIVELY… especially on pullbacks!!!