Micron: >10% Income Chew From China Ban (NASDAQ:MU)


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In our earlier evaluation of Micron Expertise, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), we discovered that the corporate’s elevated stock resulted from a drop in demand progress in comparison with provide progress, affecting DRAM and NAND costs in 2023. Regardless of this, we anticipated pricing to

Micron Geographical Income Breakdown ($ mln)

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Common

United States

17,116

12,451

10,381

12,155

16,026

Progress %

-27%

-17%

17%

32%

1%

Taiwan

3,918

2,703

3,657

6,606

6,185

Progress %

-31%

35%

81%

-6%

20%

Mainland China (Excluding HK)

3,607

3,595

2,337

2,456

3,311

Progress %

0%

-35%

5%

35%

1%

Japan

1,761

1,614

1,387

1,652

1,696

Progress %

-8%

-14%

19%

3%

0%

Hong Kong

1,265

958

1,792

2,582

1,665

Progress %

-24%

87%

44%

-36%

18%

Different Asia Pacific

1,458

1,032

1,157

1,420

1,223

Progress %

-29%

12%

23%

-14%

-2%

Different

1,266

1,053

724

834

652

Progress %

-17%

-31%

15%

-22%

-14%

Whole

30,391

23,406

21,435

27,705

30,758

Progress %

-23%

-8%

29%

11%

2%

Micron Income Influence Estimate

Bear Case

Base Case

Bull Case

Micron Income ($ bln)

30,758

30,758

30,758

Share of China Income

25.0%

25.0%

12.5%

Finish Markets Influence ($ bln)

100%

45%

45%

Estimated Influence

7,690

3,460

1,730

Estimated Influence % of Whole Income

25.0%

11.3%

5.6%

Micron Income Breakdown

2022

DRAM

72.78%

NAND

25.4%

Firms

Q2 2022

Q2 2023

YoY

Samsung (KRW tln)

21.08

8.97

-57.4%

SK Hynix (KRW tln)

13.81

7.31

-47.1%

Micron ($ bln)

8.64

3.75

-56.6%

Days Stock Ratio

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

TTM

Common

Micron

138.02

136.72

158.38

218.42

207.37

163.30

208.83

307.94

167.25

Samsung

68.49

69.72

94.49

87.98

91.15

105.32

116.03

136.98

84.22

SK Hynix

66.82

67.05

84.91

94.22

98.93

114.25

154.73

172.25

92.68

Stock Turnover Ratio

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

TTM

Common

Micron

2.64

2.67

2.30

1.67

1.76

2.24

1.75

1.19

2.47

Samsung

5.33

5.23

3.86

4.15

4.00

3.47

3.15

2.66

5.09

SK Hynix

5.46

5.44

4.3

3.87

3.69

3.19

2.36

2.12

4.57

Micron Income Projection ($ bln)

2020

2021

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

DRAM

14.51

20.04

22.39

14.18

15.98

17.92

Progress %

38.1%

11.7%

-36.6%

12.7%

12.1%

NAND

6.13

7.01

7.81

5.41

5.84

6.50

Progress %

14.3%

11.5%

-30.8%

7.9%

11.3%

Others

0.79

0.66

0.56

0.37

0.25

0.27

Progress %

-17.0%

-14.9%

-34.9%

-32.9%

Whole Income

21.44

27.71

30.76

19.95

22.06

24.68

Whole Progress %

29.25%

11.02%

-35.12%

10.57%

11.86%

Present Worth

Valuation Worth

Upside

Valuation (‘DCF’)

$ 70.03

$ 110.23

57.40%

Molodovsky Impact Low cost (30%)

$ 77.16

10.18%



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