Non-farm payrolls comes on the first Friday of the month and this edition is pushed back all the way to the 7th because of the way the calendar falls. That sets up a relatively quick turnaround before next Thursday’s CPI report.
All the consensus numbers and what to expect is in my non-farm payrolls preview.
The FX market is relatively stable today as we count down to the data. The market is extremely sensitive to economic data at the moment so this will be a big one. I’d say we’re overdue for a big miss just on the regular variance in this report so this could kick off a wild trading day.
The skew I see in markets has been shrugging off hawkish data (good data) and reacting more strongly to dovish reports. Perhaps the 5% rally in stocks this week has changed that equation though and balanced it out.
Current Fed pricing is 85% for a 75 bps hike on Nov 2 and 15% of 50 bps. A number of FOMC officials have worked to push up the 75 bps odds this week and the terminal rate is back to 4.61% from 4.40% last week.
