When you’ve been questioning when Lucid Motor’s (NASDAQ:) downtrend will resume and the way deep the inventory worth can go, the solutions are quickly and far deeper.
The most recent information is extra of the identical as what was issued earlier within the yr, leading to elevated dilution and lowered investor confidence. The information is the general public providing of 262,000,000 million shares and an offsetting issuance to Lucid’s largest shareholder. That’s value one other 375,000,000 shares and ample to dilute shares by 30%. The important takeaways are that this money will likely be burned like a lot has been burned earlier than it, used for “basic company” functions, i.e., the excessive value of growing, ramping manufacturing, and advertising and marketing its electrical autos.
Lucid on Monitor to Produce Losses in Q3
Lucid’s Q3 manufacturing and supply numbers weren’t spectacular. Though car deliveries ramped larger, the rise is unsustainable because of the sequential decline in manufacturing. The corporate produced only one,805 autos, lacking the consensus by greater than 450 or practically 20%. The Q3 outcomes will likely be launched in early November; analysts forecast a sequential decline in income to $195.2 million, up 30% in comparison with final yr, and for losses to widen. There’s a probability for outperformance because of the low bar set by analysts and power in deliveries, however it would possible be inadequate to maintain upward motion within the share worth.
Apart from the Saudi PIF, which is invested closely in Lucid’s success, proudly owning about 58% of the inventory, the sell-side assist is shaky at finest. MarketBeat knowledge reveals institutional possession at solely 11%, with analysts decreasing their sentiment rankings and worth targets in 2024. The pattern in sentiment revisions has the consensus at Maintain verging on Cut back with a worth goal of $3.70. The $3.70 goal implies a 40% upside from current motion however is properly under important resistance factors and down by 50% within the final 12 months. That pattern isn’t anticipated to finish till there’s a clear path to profitability; profitability isn’t anticipated till 2027, and the forecasts are dimming.
Lucid’s Dilutive Actions Play Into the Palms of Quick-Sellers
The quick curiosity in Lucid inventory is down from its highs in 2021 however stays excessive at practically 30%. As a result of there have been no bullish catalysts and the share gross sales are a dilutive affect, traders ought to anticipate the quick curiosity to stay excessive for the foreseeable future, if not improve. Different causes to anticipate Lucid’s quick curiosity to stay excessive embrace stalled progress, lack of earnings, and the extremely excessive valuation. The inventory trades at 10x this yr’s gross sales, an almost 50% larger valuation than Tesla (NASDAQ:), which makes cash.
Among the many dangers for traders in This fall is the outlook for 2025. The analysts’ consensus forecast reported by MarketBeat implies a 130% improve in gross sales that won’t turn into a actuality. The forecast for 2025 hinges on three issues: the ramp of Lucid Air manufacturing, the beginning of manufacturing for Lucid’s Gravity SUV mannequin, and competitors. As it’s, Air manufacturing progress is underwhelming, Gravity has but to be launched, and competitors is rising. Though the foremost OEMs have scaled again their EV plans, manufacturing is accelerating in 2025, together with quite a few choices to compete immediately with Lucid’s higher-priced autos.
The Technical Outlook for Lucid Inventory Is Bearish
The technical outlook for Lucid’s inventory is bearish as a result of it’s in a downtrend, and the pattern is undamaged. The share sale information sparked a 15% decline available in the market, placing the inventory at a multi-month low, under a important assist goal. That focus on is close to $2.80, and lows set in August when the Q2 outcomes had been launched. Assuming the market can’t shut above that degree, it would possible proceed to the underside of the long-term vary. The underside of the long-term vary is close to $2.50; a transfer under it will open the door to a big decline that might lead this inventory into the $1.00 vary.
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