Prediction markets spent a lot of the previous 12 months preventing authorized battles. This week, the main target shifted elsewhere: governments mentioned new regulatory frameworks, buying and selling platforms expanded distribution, and institutional companies continued constructing devoted companies across the asset class.
Malta Desires Its Personal Rulebook for Prediction Markets
Malta is exploring a devoted regulatory framework for prediction markets that will sit exterior each conventional monetary companies and playing legislation.
Prime Minister Robert Abela has pledged to present the Malta Gaming Authority powers to license the sector, whereas Economic system Minister Silvio Schembri mentioned the federal government is actively creating the proposal.
If adopted, Malta would change into the primary EU member state with a bespoke prediction market regime.
Whereas ESMA targeted on how sure contracts must be labeled beneath monetary companies legislation, Malta is exploring whether or not prediction markets warrant a separate regulatory class altogether.
Malta adopted the same path in 2018 by introducing a devoted authorized framework for crypto property earlier than the EU later changed nationwide regimes with MiCA.
Blockchain.com Provides Prediction Markets to Its Brokerage App
Blockchain.com has built-in Polymarket into its brokerage app, permitting customers to entry prediction markets alongside spot crypto buying and selling from a single interface.
The function is powered by Polymarket’s API and lets customers place trades with out leaving the platform.
The launch extends a broader distribution pattern throughout the trade.
Moderately than relying solely on their very own web sites, prediction market operators are more and more reaching customers by way of established buying and selling platforms with current buyer bases.
Robinhood has already launched occasion contracts by way of Kalshi, whereas Interactive Brokers presents prediction markets alongside equities, choices, and futures.
Leap Buying and selling Builds a Group for Prediction Markets
Leap Buying and selling has doubled its devoted prediction markets crew this 12 months because the agency expands into one of many fastest-growing segments of event-based buying and selling.
In line with Bloomberg, the group is recruiting past its conventional pool of quantitative merchants, searching for candidates with backgrounds starting from sports activities betting to accounting.
In contrast to conventional quantitative methods constructed on deep historic datasets, many occasion contracts rely upon distinctive or rare outcomes the place historic knowledge is proscribed and market context performs a bigger position.
For one of many world’s largest quantitative buying and selling companies, prediction markets have change into massive sufficient to justify constructing a devoted buying and selling functionality.
Variety of the Week
$100,000
That’s how a lot a White Home technical assistant allegedly made by buying and selling Kalshi contracts tied to President Donald Trump’s speeches, in line with an ABC Information report.
The worker, who operated Trump’s teleprompter, allegedly wager on whether or not particular phrases or matters would seem in additional than a dozen speeches over a three-month interval.
Kalshi mentioned it detected the exercise by way of its surveillance methods and referred the trades to the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee.
President Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator is beneath investigation by federal regulators in reference to bets they allegedly made on the prediction market platform Kalshi associated to statements made by Trump.The operator allegedly made greater than $90,000 in earnings… pic.twitter.com/Trv7pxCpby
— CNBC (@CNBC) July 16, 2026
Backside Line
Malta’s proposal nonetheless wants a proper legislative textual content, Leap Buying and selling’s hiring push is ongoing, and Blockchain.com’s integration is days previous. None of those are completed tales.
Whether or not Malta turns into the primary EU nation with a standalone prediction market framework — and whether or not different member states comply with earlier than ESMA units its personal guidelines is the one to look at.
This text was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
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