UK GDP Key Factors:

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GBP/USD continues to flirt with a break or bounce of the 200-day MA slightly below the 1.2100 stage. Earlier this morning we had weaker than anticipated UK Q3 GDP knowledge which did not encourage a break decrease with the shortage of liquidity in markets little doubt enjoying a job. The information provides additional credence to the assumption that the UK has slipped right into a recession.

UK GDP knowledge is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Q3, a downward revision from the primary estimate of 0.2%. Now we have seen downward revisions throughout 2022 that means that actual GDP is now estimated to be 0.8%, beneath its pre-pandemic stage (revised from the earlier estimate of being beneath 0.4%). Actual households’ disposable revenue (RHDI) continues to really feel the results of the rising price of dwelling because it fell by 0.5% this quarter; that is the fourth consecutive quarter of damaging progress within the RHDI. Output is now estimated to have fallen by 0.3% which was revised from a primary estimate fall of 0.2%, primarily reflecting revisions to estimates of manufacturing and development output.

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Most service sub-sectors have seen a slowdown, but companies output grew by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2022, revised up from a primary estimate of flat output. In contrast with pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic ranges, companies output is now 1.3% beneath its Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 ranges, revised down from beforehand 0.9% beneath. We did see the UK’s commerce deficit for items and companies enhance in Quarter 3 2022.

Market response

GBP/USD continues to flirt and discover help off the 200-day MA. This mornings weaker than anticipated GDP knowledge regarded prefer it might facilitate a break decrease, nonetheless the weaker greenback has seen the pair edge larger in early European commerce. The poor GDP knowledge and barely dovish stance by the BoE final week are more likely to cap upside features because the week winds down.

The pair is up 60 pips from its every day low across the 1.2060 stage, with a every day candle break and shut beneath the 200-day MA may even see a take a look at of the psychological 1.2000 stage. Upside resistance rests across the 1.2200 stage ought to we see additional upside.

GBPUSD Day by day Chart, December 22, 2022

Supply: TradingView, ready by Zain Vawda

— Written by Zain Vawda for DailyFX.com

Contact and observe Zain on Twitter: @zvawda