Future Outlook: Technical Traits for the Week of February 20 – February 24, 2023


This week, our analysts evaluation technical developments for the week forward for Micro NASDAQ 100 futures, the 30-year treasury bond futures, micro bitcoin futures and RBOB gasoline futures. Additionally they develop on firm earnings and financial reviews for the approaching week.

Micro NASDAQ 100 Futures Day by day Chart

The Micro NASDAQ 100 futures tried to check the 38% Fibonacci retracement degree (utilizing the December 2021 excessive and the October 2022 low as a downtrend) a second time final week and failed, ending the week buying and selling across the 200-day exponential transferring common. The RSI reveals bearish divergence: latest highs within the RSI are lowering, whereas latest highs in worth present sideways motion. The MACD histogram signifies a pattern change to bearish because it dips beneath the zero line. Ought to this pullback in worth proceed, help at 12072 (the 23% Fib retracement) and on the 50-day EMA, at present at 11985. Targets on the upside (after breaking by way of 12990) may very well be 13730 (50% retracement degree) and the August excessive of 13933.

30-Yr Treasury Bond Futures Day by day Chart

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures is reaching a crucial space of help 124’12, which has already been examined in early January. The latest cross beneath the 50-day exponential transferring common is bearish, with the final seven buying and selling days seeing decrease highs and decrease lows. Bearish divergence is seen within the RSI indicator – with decrease lows on the RSI the place worth has but to make a comparable decrease low. The MACD reveals bearish instances as nicely, with the MACD, sign line and histogram all in adverse territory. Ought to the market rally, count on some resistance on the 50-day transferring common (at present at 128’07). Additional bearish motion may goal 117’15, the low within the October.

30-Year Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart for week of 2.20.23

Micro Bitcoin Futures Day by day Chart

Micro Bitcoin futures proceed to rally with the cross above the 200-day exponential transferring common.  The MACD is poised for a cross above its sign line, which might be a bullish indication. The RSI is troubling although – whereas bitcoin is making greater swing highs, the RSI is seeing decrease swing highs, which may point out a weakening bull pattern. A continuation of the bull pattern may expertise resistance at 27550 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement from the excessive in November 2021 to the low a 12 months later). If pattern swings to the draw back, search for help on the 50-day EMA (at present at 20966).

Micro Bitcoin Futures Daily Chart for week of 2.20.23

RBOB Gasoline Future Day by day Chart

Gasoline futures have been a 65-cent buying and selling vary since September, buying and selling between 2.25 and a pair of.90, with worth at present midway between these borders at 2.57. Whereas MACD appeared prepared to point a pattern change to bullish, the final two buying and selling days of final week saved the indicator bearish. RSI is respecting the worth motion, trending downward to 43 (not fairly oversold but). An unconventional head and shoulders has appeared, so ought to a break of the neckline happen, the measured transfer (from the highest of the pinnacle to the neckline, utilized to the purpose on the neckline the place the draw back break happens) signifies a doable goal of two.15. Anticipate resistance at 2.90 ought to the pattern flip bullish.

RBOB Gasoline Future Daily Chart for week of 2.20.23

Financial Studies for the week of February 20th – February 24th

Thursday February 23rd is a crucial financial report day as each jobless claims and GDP shall be launched at 8:30am ET. That is the second (revised estimate) launch for This fall 2022 GDP, with the Advance quantity at 2.9%. Watch to see if this primary revision will increase or decreases, as a pattern could affect Fed coverage for setting the Fed Funds price. The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) performs double obligation on Thursday morning, releasing each the Pure Gasoline report and the Petroleum Standing report.  Housing market-related reviews releasing this week embody Current Residence Gross sales (Tuesday), MBA Mortgage Functions (Wednesday), and New Residence Gross sales (Friday).

Talking engagements by Federal Reserve presidents embody NY Fed president John Williams (Wednesday), Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic (Thursday) and Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester. Be aware that this will not embody all Federal Reserve appearances subsequent week, and that market volatility can enhance when these audio system touch upon the financial system and Fed coverage.

Moreover, Monday is a financial institution vacation in the USA; examine the exchanges for doable shortened buying and selling hours.

*** Market Transferring Indicators
* Benefit Additional Consideration

Date Financial Studies
Monday, February twentieth No reviews because of the Presidents Day Vacation
Tuesday, February twenty first 10:00 AM ET: Current Residence Gross sales
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections @usda
Wednesday, February twenty second 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Functions
10:00 AM ET: State Avenue Investor Confidence Index
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes
5:30 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Financial institution President John Williams Speech
Thursday, February twenty third 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims***
8:30 AM ET: GDP***
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Pure Gasoline Report*
10:50 AM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Financial institution President Raphael Bostic Speech
11:00 AM ET: Kansas Metropolis Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Standing Report***
4:30 PM ET: Fed Stability Sheet
Friday, February twenty fourth 8:30 AM ET: Export Gross sales
8:30 AM ET: Private Revenue and Outlays*
10:00 AM ET: New Residence Gross sales
10:00 AM ET: Shopper Sentiment
10:15 AM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Financial institution President Loretta Mester Speech
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Rely
3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed
3:00 PM ET: Chilly Storage

Corporations Reporting Earnings for the week of February 20th – February 24th

Retail firms take heart stage this week, led by Walmart (in each the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices) on Tuesday morning. Baidu, eBay, Ali Baba and Wayfair reporting midweek symbolize e-commerce – watch these outcomes for perception into how customers are spending on retail gadgets.

Residence Depot represents the opposite Dow Jones firm reporting this week, additionally on Tuesday morning—concentrate on potential volatility in Dow Jones futures each when the earnings reviews are launched and at common market open (9:30am ET).  Industrial actual property is represented by CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield on Thursday. Canadian banks incomes season begins with CIBC on Friday earlier than market open.

BMO = Earlier than Market Open
AMC = After Market Shut

* signifies that this firm is within the S&P 500 Index

Date Earnings Studies
Monday, February twentieth No reviews because of the Presidents Day Vacation
Tuesday, February twenty first Residence Depot (HD): $3.25 EPS Estimate, $35.97B Income Estimate (BMO)*
Molson Coors Brewing Firm. (TAP): $1.06 EPS Estimate, $2.67B Income Estimate (BMO)*
Walmart (WMT): $1.52 EPS Estimate, $159.08B Income Estimate (BMO)*
Caesar’s Leisure (CZR): ($0.18) EPS Estimate, $2.82B Income Estimate (AMC)
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): $1.37 EPS Estimate, $1.74B Income Estimate (AMC)
Wednesday, February twenty second Baidu, Inc. (BIDU): $1.61 EPS Estimate, $4.64B Income Estimate (BMO)
eBay, Inc. (EBAY): $1.06 EPS Estimate, $2.46B Income Estimate (AMC)*
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): ($3.04) EPS Estimate, $3.05B Income Estimate (AMC)*
Rio Tinto plc (RIO): –.– EPS Estimate, $44.84B Income Estimate (AMC)
Thursday, February twenty third Ali Baba Group Holdings (BABA): $2.28 EPS Estimate, $35.48B Income Estimate (BMO)
CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $8.46B Income Estimate (BMO)*
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): $4.66 EPS Estimate, $5.09B Income Estimate (BMO)*
Wayfair, Inc. (W): ($3.04) EPS Estimate, $3.05B Income Estimate (BMO)
Carvana Co. (CVNA): $0.08 EPS Estimate, $11.03B Income Estimate (AMC)
Cushman & Wakefield (CWK): $0.46 EPS Estimate, $2.44B Income Estimate (AMC)
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): $0.08 EPS Estimate, $11.03B Income Estimate (AMC)*
Friday, February twenty fourth Canadian Imperial Financial institution of Commerce (CM): $1.22 EPS Estimate, $16.73B Income Estimate (BMO)

Make sure to examine again weekly and comply with us on our social media accounts to obtain alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.

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