• Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan is speaking on 11 October 2022
• Federal Reserve speakers ahead for Tuesday, 11 October 2022 – Harker then Mester
• All eyes will be on US CPI data this week, due on Thursday 13 October 2022 – preview
• Japan’s Kanda says always prepared to take steps against excess FX volatility
• Japan finance minister Suzuki says will respond appropriately to excess FX moves
• Japan officials comment on oil, gas, border control … nothing on the yen though
• ECB chief economist Lane is speaking on Tuesday, 11 October 2022
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1075 (vs. estimate at 7.1038)
• RBNZ Governor Orr says further efforts are needed to reduce inflation
• Bank of England speakers on 11 October 2022 include Governor Bailey, deputy Cuncliffe
• Australia September business confidence 5 (vs. prior 10)
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers says Australia will not have a recession
• South Korea’s exports down 20.2% y/y in the first 10 days of October
• USD catching a bid, 30 year US Treasury yield hits its highest since 2014
• Australian monthly consumer confidence index falls in October, down 0.9% m/m
• UK data shows consumer spending in September lagging
• USD/JPY is in BOJ intervention territory … but is this time different?
• FX option expiries for 10 October 22 at the 10am New York cut
• China’s state media says the country must stick with the zero COVID policy
• Australia consumer confidence weekly survey falls 1.1%
• Australia data – private survey shows September household spending -0.5% m/m (prior +0.9%)
• New Zealand retail sales indicator +1.4% m/m (prior +1%) & +28.6% y/y (prior +26.9%)
• ICYMI – Fed’s Brainard and Evans spoke on Monday, US time
• New Zealand traffic data points to some upside risk to Q3 GDP – demand resilient
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap:Jamie Dimon shakes markets, but Feds Brainard calms nerves
• Goldman Sachs forecasting GBP/USD to 1.05, citing fundamentals, & a “difficult” policy mix
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 11 October 2022

Major
US indices closed lower for a fourth consecutive day on Monday,
providing another weak lead for Asia stocks. Japan and Hong Kong were
notable lower while the Shanghai Composite saw some support. As I
post though Shanghai is slightly in the negative.

Across
major FX it was another session of US dollar strength (almost) across
the board. UST yields rose as
trading began upon the return from the Columbus Day holiday.
EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD and CHF all fell against the USD during the
session. USD/JPY has net moved very little at all. Its holding very
close to levels where we last saw Bank of Japan intervention to buy
the yen. Verbal intervention from Japanese officials today was weak
though, see the bullets above for more on this.

The
data focus for the session was on Australian September business
confidence (recorded a drop) and conditions (these rose). Indications
from the sub-indices to this National Australia Bank survey are
suggestive of a peak for rising labour and input costs. We also had
the Westpac monthly consumer confidence data (another drop).
Responses to this survey showed clearly that those received prior to
the RBA decision on October 4 were more pessimistic than those
received after. Analysts at WPAC attributed this to the smaller than
expected RBA cash rate hike.

The
Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its annual report, in it
Governor Orr reiterated his opinion that the Bank needed to hike
further to continue fighting inflation.