This is the first time that EUR/USD is testing its 100-day moving average (red line) since February this year. That is a testament to the sort of rebound seen this week, with the dollar seeing quite the selloff as markets look to be pinning their hopes on a central bank pivot of sorts.
The jump yesterday also arguably invalidates the downtrend in the pair that has persisted since the start of the year but we will have to wait on the post-ECB reaction to confirm that. For now, the hold at the 100-day moving average, seen at 1.0087, is key to limiting any further upside. Further resistance is then seen at the 12 September high near 1.0200.
Those will be key levels to watch in trying to gauge any upside momentum in the pair as we digest the post-ECB musings later today.
There are also large option expiries through to Friday at parity level, so just bear that in mind in case price action gets a little bit indecisive in the aftermath of the key risk event.
I shared some thoughts earlier here on what we can expect next from the euro but a lot will also come down to the Fed next week in determining the fate of the dollar heading into year-end.
