By Tom Wilson and Elizabeth Howcroft

LONDON (Reuters) – Crypto traders have welcomed the prospect of a decision of a long-running U.S. prison investigation into Binance, reckoning any deal that enables the foremost change to proceed working would take away a nagging danger to the broader market.

The U.S. Justice Division (DOJ) is in search of over $4 billion from Binance as a part of a proposed decision of its probe, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing individuals aware of the discussions.

A supply aware of the investigation instructed Reuters the investigation was nearing its conclusion, with out elaborating. An announcement on the decision might come as quickly as the tip of this month, Bloomberg reported.

, the highest crypto and a barometer for wider sentiment, was unmoved by the information and was on Tuesday buying and selling down about 2.6%. Binance’s in-house token BNB, the fourth-biggest digital coin, climbed 4.6% on Tuesday, including to positive aspects of as a lot as 6% a day earlier.

The market response displays an expectation {that a} $4 billion fee could be manageable for Binance, 4 crypto traders and market individuals stated. Such a settlement would permit Binance to proceed to function, sparing the market a sell-off sparked by any chaotic unwinding, two of the individuals stated.

“We see this information as a constructive growth,” stated Anatoly Crachilov, chief government of London-based Nickel Digital Asset Administration, a consumer of Binance.

A settlement of round $4 billion is “one thing that doubtlessly Binance can deal with,” Crachilov stated, citing publicly out there data on its buying and selling volumes and commissions as proof that it has been “producing billions.”

The precise extent of Binance’s money reserves are unknown. As a non-public firm, it doesn’t disclose primary monetary data similar to income and revenue. It has stated it’s worthwhile and debt-free.

Binance and the DOJ didn’t instantly reply to requests for remark.

The DOJ has been investigating Binance and its billionaire CEO Changpeng Zhao since at the very least 2018 over potential costs together with cash laundering conspiracy and prison sanctions violations, Reuters reported final yr.

RISK REMOVAL?

Regardless of a falling market share this yr, Binance has lengthy dominated crypto. Final month it managed round a 3rd of crypto spot and half of derivatives buying and selling, based on CCData.

Its standing has for years left traders cautious of dangers to the broader market from a string of regulatory and authorized complications dealing with Binance.

Bitcoin fell as a lot as 6%, for instance, after Binance and Zhao have been sued by the U.S. Securities and Trade Fee in June for allegedly evading U.S. federal securities legal guidelines. Binance has denied the SEC’s allegations.

Any decision of the DOJ probe would take away the danger to the crypto market of Binance’s sudden collapse, stated Sui Chung, CEO of crypto index supplier CF Benchmarks.

“Binance disappearing in a single day stays a possible systemic danger to the crypto market,” Chung stated. “But when there’s a settlement, that will not be the case … Any modifications to Binance could be orderly.”

Different traders cited the private wealth of Zhao as being ample to cowl any settlement with the DOJ.

“This may simply be swallowed by CZ himself,” stated Samed Bouaynaya of London-based Altana Digital Property Fund.