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I'm attempting to know whether or not speculator positioning makes extra sense when learn alongside provide/demand information, or whether or not the 2 are simply unbiased alerts that don't actually discuss to one another. Utilizing corn for instance. On the COT facet: Specs went from closely quick in mid-2024 to a near-extreme lengthy by March 2025, then fully reversed again to quick by Q3/This fall. Now they're quietly rebuilding once more. https://preview.redd.it/v90ecrtrseog1.png?width=950&format=png&auto=webp&s=642dd8c7143c69016ace3dfdda2056fae9ab782b On the basics facet: – USDA S/U ratio: 12.9% for 2025/26 – balanced, not tight – Ending shares: 2,127 mil bu, up 37% YoY from a tighter 10.3% final yr – Ahead curve: contango, butterfly unfold at -54.5 – no near-term provide stress priced in https://preview.redd.it/iodhvqr0teog1.png?width=1182&format=png&auto=webp&s=a32245f58617932799163c2dd60b837d0f5b382c So specs are constructing longs into a cushty provide image with a curve that isn't signaling urgency. What I'm attempting to know = when is positioning constant with fundamentals, and when is it operating forward of them? A couple of issues I'm interested in: – Do you employ COT purely as a sentiment/contrarian software, or do you cross-reference with S&D information? – How do you strategy this in power markets? EIA stock attracts and climate noise look like they'd make this messier – Is there a positioning-vs-fundamentals divergence that you just really discover helpful in observe? I'm constructing a dashboard to trace this divergence (cotdata.uk) and I need to be certain I'm not designing it in a vacuum. Earlier than I construct out the power facet, I'd like to understand how individuals who really commerce this give it some thought. submitted by /u/extremelyshortguy |
