Forex

Can the dollar retracement run?


There’s a consistent theme of US dollar weakness across the board this week. That goes along with falling yields and rising gold.

It’s a picture that looks more like a broader turn than anything we’re seeing in the stock market, though some of the strength into Friday’s close is promising.

I’m not a fan of the dollar index but it paints a good picture at the moment and shows the potential for a retracement, even within the ongoing trend.

A dip to 101 would be a standard-sort of 38.2% retracement from the February lows.

On the flipside, the the old high combined with the 2017 high formed something of a double top and we might just be seeing a retest of that before another leg higher.

What I think we’re seeing play out in the bigger picture is that a global central banks are being forced to join the Fed in tightening. It may not be at the same pace but there wasn’t much hiking priced in for Europe but now there is. So far the BOJ is holding the line but the SNB showed cracks this week.

Secondly, the US dollar benefited from a special bid due to technology stocks. That bubble is bursting at the moment and it will draw money out of the US during the next wave of investing, which will be in value stocks.



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Adam Button
Adam Button

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