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Barclays Analysis discusses USD/JPY outlook and now targets the pair at 145, 141, 136, and 131 by Q1, Q2, Q3, and This fall of subsequent 12 months.
“Within the medium time period, we count on USDJPY to reverse its rally again in direction of 130 in 2023 attributable to tightening financial coverage divergence and an enhancing present account.
First, we count on the Fed to start out slicing charges from September 2023 after holding its FF goal vary at 5.00- 5.25% for six months, resulting in tighter coverage charge differentials between the US and Japan. Our baseline assumption is for no modifications in BoJ coverage till 2024, however the threat could also be for an earlier transfer if home wage/inflation dynamics enhance, world development holds up, or fears in regards to the limits of FX intervention come up,” Barclays notes.
“Second, the decline in world commodity costs (particularly oil and meals) and the reopening of Japan’s borders to overseas tourism ought to begin reversing the unfavorable phrases of commerce shock on the present account in 2022. Restricted urge for food for FX-unhedged funding in addition to subdued outward M&A flows from corporates recommend that FX supply-demand will tilt in favor of the JPY in 2023,” Barclays provides.
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The view is off to a superb begin given the USD/JPY response to cooler US CPI information:
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