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James Picerno

Research Review: Best Academic Articles On Current Risk Premia

For those interested in more in-depth reading, here's a list of the best academic article I've read on the topic of risk premia, published between the months of April and May: Martin Tarlie (GMO) May...

U.S. Recession Risk May Be Rising, But Growth Still Prevails

How quickly and deeply will economic growth slow? That’s the critical question, but the future being the future the answer is unclear. What we do know is that headwinds are building. We also...

Can The Fed Break Inflation’s Near-Term Momentum?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell aims to try and on Tuesday expressed confidence that the central bank will aggressively persist in its quest to resolve its biggest inflation challenge in four decades. “If that...

Peak Inflation Still Doesn’t Look Imminent

The Federal Reserve, as expected, its policy rate by 50-basis-points yesterday to a 0.75%-to-1.0% range, signaling to the market that the central bank is resolved to fight . But there’s a long...

Waiting For U.S. Economy To Cry ‘Uncle’

You can’t swing a cat without hitting a commentator discussing recession risk these days. And for good reason: there’s a growing list of potential threats to the economy. But forecasting a possible contraction...

Will Strong Labor Market Prevent A U.S. Recession?

Headwinds are building for the US economy, stoking forecasts that recession risk is rising. The labor market, however, remains resilient, suggesting that the economy will continue to expand for the near term. Private payrolls...

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