- Commerce Warfare 2.0 could set off a stagflation narrative because it includes not solely US-China commerce however with different main buying and selling companions.
- Commodities currencies could face additional headwinds as a consequence of deteriorating international financial progress prospects.
- Watch the 0.6330 key medium-term resistance on the AUD/USD and the 1.4300 key medium-term assist on the USD/CAD.
On 1 February, US President Trump formally “fired” his flagship commerce tariffs coverage by imposing 25% tariffs on items from Canada and Mexico and a ten% levy on merchandise from China through the issuance of government orders.
Whereas tariffs-related orders haven’t been executed on European Union exports to the US, Trump has remarked that commerce tariffs will “undoubtedly occur” on European items, which sparked a sell-off within the Euro and European benchmark inventory indices as we speak; the tumbled by 1.2% to revisit its current 13 January swing space of 1.0190 and export-dependent Germany’s shed 1.7%
Commerce Warfare 2.0 is totally different from the US-China Commerce Warfare which was enacted in January 2018 when it comes to protection as this time spherical it includes main buying and selling companions of the US, on high of the continued US-China Tech Warfare.
Commerce Warfare 2.0 Could Set off Damaging Whiplash on Commodities Currencies
Therefore, it might set off a widespread unfavourable sentiment on international progress prospects, threat of stagflation narrative could also be again on the radar of speculative gamers within the monetary markets which in flip creates a unfavourable suggestions loop on greater beta commodities associated currencies that has a direct correlation to international financial progress akin to (base steel proxy akin to ), (oil proxy).
Allow us to do a deep dive into the prospects of the Aussie greenback and Loonie from a technical evaluation perspective over a medium-term horizon (multi-month).
AUD/USD Damaging Response at 50-Day Transferring Common
Fig 1: AUD/USD medium-term development as of 4 Feb 2025 (Supply: TradingView)
The current rebound seen within the AUD/USD from its current 13 January swing low space has been stalled proper at its downward sloping 50-day shifting common that has acted as a resistance at round 0.6330 (see Fig 1).
Coupled with an impending bearish crossover situation being flashed out as we speak, 3 February by the every day MACD development indicator beneath its centreline means that the medium-term downtrend of the AUD/USD in place since its 30 September 2024 swing excessive of 0.6943 stays intact.
Watch the 0.6330 key medium-term pivotal resistance and a break with a every day shut beneath 0.6120 key near-term assist exposes the following medium-term helps of 0.6030/5990 and 0.5870/5810.
On the flip facet, a clearance above 0.6330 invalidates the bearish state of affairs for the following medium-term resistance to come back in at 0.6440, and above it sees the long-term pivotal resistance of 0.6540/6620 (additionally the 200-day shifting common).
USD/CAD Hit Overbought Situation however No Clear Indicators of Bearish Reversal
Fig 2: USD/CAD medium-term development as of 4 Feb 2025 (Supply: TradingView)
The value actions of the USD/CAD gapped up as we speak 3 February and proper now, it’s testing its long-term secular vary resistance of 1.4690 which has been in place since 20 January 2016.
The every day RSI momentum indicator has reached its overbought area however has not flashed out any bearish divergence situation which means that the USD/CAD could stage a minor pull at this juncture earlier than resuming its impulsive upmove sequence inside its present medium-term uptrend in place since 25 September 2024 swing low of 1.3420 (see Fig 2).
Watch the 1.4300 key medium-term pivotal assist (additionally the 50-day shifting common) to carry any potential minor pull-backs and a every day shut above the 1.4690 key near-term resistance sees the following medium-term resistance coming in at 1.5020/5110 (additionally the higher boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel from June 2021 low).
Nonetheless, a breakdown beneath 1.4300 invalidates the bullish state of affairs on the USD/CAD for a possible corrective decline sequence to unfold inside its main uptrend part which exposes the following medium-term assist at 1.3890 (additionally the 200-day shifting common in step one).
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