Are we actually in a bear market?

https://ibb.co/R0pz28j
https://ibb.co/7tcXCmm
https://ibb.co/qm5pn8p

Linked above is the SP 500 with markers notating peaks and recessions, in its 2001 dot com inventory bubble, 2007 monetary bubble and the 2021 inventory bubble, that are needed for understanding my reasoning.

Right here's my take:
incoming 2nd recession: possible however not quickly
bear market: over
inventory market: about to take one other run up/peak

2 necessary issues of notice:
1. Whereas the yield curve inversions have predicted the entire earlier recessions (together with the temporary however not proven covid recession from feb-april 2020) this doesn’t truly line up with the peaks and troughs out there as seen in my graphs
2. Recession occur in Bear markets (as per definition counting on unfavorable GDP progress), however bear markets can occur with out recessions

The 2001 bubble had its peak a simply barely earlier than the YC inversion.
The 2007 bubble had its peak a full 12 months after YC inversion.
The 2020 temporary 3 month recession was a results of covid lockdowns and subsequently not relevant to our present scenario.

So taking a look at our present market we needs to be conscious that the December 2021 peak and following 1 12 months bear market pull again might be the only results of covid tech shares operating up and never the lengthy overdue bear market/recession everybody's been speaking about incoming. After all inventory market =/= well being of the economic system. There are many jobs and progress (each by means of pop progress and tech growth) within the economic system proper now which might be why the inventory market appears to be like as bizarre because it does proper now.

See, with each earlier bear market following a peak, the bear market lasts 2-3 years, however virtually inexplicably we see a bear market by means of 2022 lasting lower than a 12 months, with the present run up being a constructive indicator for the SP500.

My conclusion? We haven't truly seen the highest of the market but.
As a result of if we had, then the SP would have continued dropping for the subsequent ~1.5 years, and simply because the YC inverted doesnt imply we’ll IMMEDIATLY see the recession nor does it line up with the highest of the market.
What we do have nonetheless is extraordinarily constructive progress alerts (pop rising/tech advances), a LOT more cash out there with the common investor in buying and selling apps, extra folks returning to work, which can doubtless proceed by means of the subsequent few years. After all anybody betting in opposition to the U.S. market is often flawed as markets over time development up logarithmically with bear markets sparse and lasting little greater than 3 years. However that's the factor, it continues up LOGARYTHMICALLY and proper now we’re beneath that common line trying on the sp500 on a 20 12 months chart. One other run will occur beating 472 simple, doubtless adopted by an precise bear market and recession, assuming the present YC inversion developments deeper, and doesn't instantly pop again up prefer it did in 2019, in any other case we could not see the deep 2-3 12 months lengthy bear market in any respect.

Ideas?