The Hill has an attention-grabbing story: 5 takeaways on a surprisingly robust jobs report.
“The U.S. economic system added 517,000 jobs in January, greater than doubling Wall Avenue expectations and turning up its nostril at prognosticators of an imminent recession. The unemployment price dropped to three.4 p.c, the bottom degree since 1969. Analysts had been anticipating it to maneuver in the wrong way, ticking as much as 3.6 p.c.”
Sure, I used to be anticipating U-3 unemployment to extend to three.6% as nicely. What occurred? Seasonal changes (BLS doens’t present non-seasonally adjusted information). However the surprising headline (largely as a result of seasonal adjustements) was not as stunning if we contemplate that jobs added in January grew at 3.309% year-over-year. Properly, THAT isn’t all that stunning. Notably since The Fed is sluggish strolling its shrinking of The Fed steadiness sheet.
And with over 100 MILLION not within the labor power (apparently, the US labor power by no means actually recovered from the Wuhan China virus), the U-3 unemployment price touted by the media is deceptive.
Keep in mind that employment is a LAGGING indicator. For instance, the unemployment price was 4.7% in November 2007 simply previous to the start of the 2008-2009 Nice Recession. So Biden’s bragging concerning the lowest unemployment price since 1969 is meaningless in predicting recessions.
So, the January jobs report isn’t as stunning and robust as speaking heads screamed about. I want BLS would launch non-seasonally adjusted (uncooked) information. However since we have now a dysfunctional Federal authorities, I’m not holding my breath.
And I wouldn’t contemplate averrage hourly earnings progress YoY of 4.42% when headline US inflation is 6.42% significantly brag worthy.
In fact, Biden lied about inheriting inflation from Trump. Inflation was 1.28% YoY in December 2020 simply earlier than Biden was sworn-in as President. Then once more, Biden lies about the whole lot. A minimum of he simply refused to touch upon the Chinese language Spy Balloons.