One space I cowl in my outlook for 2024 is the teachings of Raymond Lo and the way he sees the upcoming Yr of the Dragon.
Part of my feedback on his evaluation relies on this assertion by LO:
“Many has the misunderstanding that the Dragon is glamorous auspicious animal and can at all times deliver good luck. On the contrary, Dragon and Canine within the 12-animal system known as the “Gate to Heaven and Hell” or the “Internet of Heaven and Hell”.
Therefore, 2024 may see positive aspects. We’re agnostic and positively trying to charts. Particularly junk bonds , small caps , and retail .
Apparently, shoppers whether or not you name it revenge spending or YOLO, are nonetheless very a lot within the recreation. Disposal earnings sturdy
With sure areas of inflation coming down-although nonetheless greater than what numbers recommend. The dialogue of the speed hike cycle on the finish is controversial
Statistically, there was a serious monetary failure on the finish of every fee hike cycle since 1965.
Presently, the catalyst for monetary stress might be the rising debt, rising spending, geopolitical points impacting provide chain, and a contentious election yr.
And something that gooses inflation will cease the Fed from cutting-
January 2024 will see a brand new 6-month calendar vary reset-this might be crucial this time with many predicting the top of the primary quarter with a sell-off.
Though the stats are on the facet of a better market, this yr of the dragon suggests some irritation that might flip the market on its facet with extra volatility.
17 Predictions:
- If Dec closes underneath 470, January and 460 are pivotal
- If SPY simply hangs in there and doesn’t fail, the small caps and retail can shine. Nonetheless, gravity at all times takes over if the sell-off is extra extreme.
- Fed retains charges between 4-6% and s maintain a spread between 92-105 (until there’s a recession)
- EVs would be the worst place to take a position
- Development will go nowhere-not fail or rally-more sideways
- Whereas alt vitality may make a comeback
- Tendencies for 2024-gold and silver begin their final hurrah-we plan to experience the wave, exit after which transfer on
- Industrial metals will do nicely
- goes to 47k then drops to 37k for the beginning of a brand new rally into the halving
- and not price buying and selling in the meanwhile
- Customers that spent the final ½ of 2023 in YOLO or revenge spending, go into self-importance mode 2024-Vogue, magnificence, skincare, elective surgical procedures, self-help, possibly courting shares do well-all about me!
- Banks may do nicely however we have to see regional banks lead
- We like Media shares SPOTIFY (NYSE:) (NYSE:)
- Infrastructure extra by means of manufacturing and engineering-especially automation
- Healthcare: We see huge pharma placing extra strain on govt for medical hashish use-ABBV prime decide
- Rising markets-GREK subsequent leg up. Watching FXI and VNM
- Commodities keep muted till the 2nd ½ of the yr. Why?
- Geopolitics: provide chain, labor issues-possible recession adopted by extra inflation
- Pure Disasters
- Debt and authorities spending
- in a downtrend
- Misstep by the Fed in decreasing charges too quick or conserving charges flat whereas CPI picks up
- Pre-election year-generally optimistic for shares esp. worth
ETF Abstract
- S&P 500 (SPY) 480 all-time highs 465 underlying help
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 200 pivotal
- Dow (DIA) Wants to carry 370
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 410 pivotal
- Regional banks (KRE) 47 help 55 resistance
- Semiconductors (SMH) 174 pivotal help to carry this month
- Transportation (IYT) Wants to carry 250
- Biotechnology (IBB) 130 pivotal help
- Retail (XRT) The longer this stays over 70.00 the higher!
