The analyst’s conclusions here are bizarre. He concludes that only half of people who say they would cancel will actually cancel, which is fair enough, but then concludes that a $3 charge for additional users will be a net positive due to the 12% who said they would comply.

How is that math supposed to work? Losing one $15 subscription for every two $3 sharing surcharges is not a win. Does he think those 12% are going to add an average of three shared users? That sounds wildly implausible.