US DOLLAR FORECAST – USD/CAD. AUD/USD
- The U.S. greenback has rebounded just lately, as merchants have scaled again overly dovish interest-price lower expectations
- Present market dynamics could have room to consolidate within the close to time period
- This text focuses on the technical outlook for USD/CAD and AUD/USD
Beneficial by Diego Colman
Get Your Free USD Forecast
Most Learn: US Greenback Shines Vivid on Robust Information; Setups on Gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY
The US greenback has staged a stable rebound just lately as merchants have scaled again bets on how a lot the Fed will slash borrowing prices in 2024. A few weeks in the past, markets had been largely satisfied that the U.S. central financial institution would ship greater than 160 foundation factors of easing this yr, however these expectations have since moderated sharply.
The chances that the FOMC will begin its rate-cutting cycle in March have additionally diminished, boosting buck’s bullish reversal alongside the way in which.
On condition that the Fed’s financial coverage outlook, as assessed by Wall Avenue, stays overly dovish and inconsistent with the power of the economic system, wagers on deep price cuts might proceed to unwind, paving the way in which for current strikes to increase. This might probably lead to further beneficial properties for the U.S. greenback within the close to time period.
With this in thoughts, this text will discover the technical outlook for USD/CAD and AUD/USD, analyzing essential value thresholds that must be on each dealer’s radar within the coming days and weeks.
Excited about studying how retail positioning can form the short-term trajectory of USD/CAD? Our sentiment information has all of the solutions. Obtain your free information now!
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Day by day | 10% | 2% | 6% |
| Weekly | -9% | 35% | 10% |
USD/CAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
USD/CAD has rallied vigorously since 2023, clearing important technical thresholds within the course of, together with its 200-day easy transferring common.
After its current climb, the pair has reached the gates of a key resistance close to 1.3540, the place a short-term downtrend line aligns with the 50% Fib retracement of the Nov/Dec droop. Bears should defend this space in any respect prices; failure to take action might lead to a transfer in direction of 1.3570, adopted by 1.3625.
Within the occasion a bearish reversal off present ranges, preliminary assist seems at 1.3480. Though costs could discover stability on this zone throughout a pullback, a decisive breakdown might immediate a swift retrenchment in direction of 1.3385.
USD/CAD TECHNICAL CHART
USD/CAD Chart Created Utilizing TradingView
Not sure concerning the Australian greenback’s development? Acquire readability with our complimentary Q1 buying and selling forecast!
Beneficial by Diego Colman
Get Your Free AUD Forecast
AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
AUD/USD bought off from late December by way of early this week, however has begun to stabilize after discovering assist close to 0.6525, an essential degree barely above the 100-day easy transferring common. If the nascent rebound begins to achieve traction, resistance emerges at 0.6570-0.6580, adopted by 0.6650. On additional power, the bulls could launch an assault on the 0.6700 deal with.
On the flip facet, if sellers return and push costs beneath the 100-day SMA, the subsequent line of protection in opposition to a bearish assault seems at 0.6500, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Oct/Dec rally. It’s critical for this technical ground to carry, as a breakdown might usher in a descent in direction of 0.6460.
AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART
AUD/USD Chart Created Utilizing TradingView
