Shakespeare as soon as mentioned that each one that glisters might not be gold, however he clearly wasn’t speaking in regards to the spectacular earnings numbers has been reporting in 2025.
The beauty kingpin posted one other prime and bottom-line beat in its Q2 2025 earnings report launched after the Aug. 28 buying and selling session, surpassing expectations in quite a lot of completely different gross sales classes.
Can Ulta proceed to stun buyers and analysts? In the present day, we’ll have a look at two components pointing to extra upside forward, and one indicating some potential short-term turbulence.
A Dazzling Q2 Report Surpassing Excessive Expectations
Ulta Magnificence isn’t any stranger to excessive expectations, and buyers had been rewarded when the corporate reported its Q1 earnings on the peak of tariff turmoil. An surprising 2.9% year-over-year (YOY) comp gross sales determine led the report, far surpassing the consensus determine of 0.2% from Wall Road. In Q2, analysts ready for extra upside, projecting 2.2% YOY comp gross sales development. And as soon as once more, they undershot by an amazing margin.
Ulta’s Q2 2025 earnings numbers as soon as once more blew away EPS and income expectations. The $5.78 EPS determine beat the consensus projection by 75 cents, and the $2.79 billion income quantity represented YOY development of 9.3%.
Underpinning this earnings beat was one other extraordinary comp gross sales quantity: 6.7% YOY development. Often, it is advisable to head to to see comp gross sales develop greater than 6% in 1 / 4, however Ulta continues to lift the bar with gross sales development throughout a wide range of classes.
CEO Kecia Steelman unveiled the “Ulta Magnificence Unleashed” roadmap earlier this yr, and the turnaround plan is already paying dividends. The comp gross sales development was broad, that includes a 3.7% enhance in transaction quantity and a pair of.9% larger tickets.
Clients are purchasing extra often and shopping for extra once they do. A big portion of the added enterprise is pushed by Ulta’s loyalty program (rising 4% YOY to 45.8 million members) and a deal with enhancing the in-store expertise with promotions.
Ulta’s success doesn’t relaxation on a single product or class, both. Fragrances proceed to promote at double-digit YOY will increase, with robust development from the skincare, make-up, and haircare segments.
With numbers like this, it’s simple to see why administration was snug upping full-year gross sales steerage once more: this time to a spread of $12 to $12.1 billion, up from $11.5 to $11.7 billion.
Chart Exhibits Lengthy-Time period Uptrend, However Quick-Time period Headwinds
If there’s one space the place Ulta Magnificence is missing shine, it’s the each day inventory chart, the place just a few blended indicators are starting to emerge. ULTA shares have staged a unbelievable rally in 2025, gaining practically 20% YTD and greater than 40% within the final 12 months.
A Golden Cross shaped following the Q1 earnings launch, triggered by a ten% single-day acquire as buyers digested the robust report. The inventory continues to be inside a whisper of its all-time excessive of $555 set again in March 2024, however the uptrend is beginning to lose some luster after we look underneath the hood.
ULTA shares have been hugging the 50-day easy transferring common (SMA) as assist, and the uptrend will stay in place so long as that barrier stays agency. The Transferring Common Convergence Divergence (MACD) paints an uglier image, exhibiting momentum persistently weakening since July.
The inventory misplaced 7% following the Q2 earnings report regardless of stellar numbers, solely to reverse course the very subsequent day. Technical merchants will carefully monitor the 50-day SMA from right here for any additional proof of a breakdown.
A Full Package of Catalysts Stays in 2025
Regardless of the chart’s short-term volatility, Ulta Magnificence nonetheless has quite a few elementary components working in its favor. A few of these are particular to its enterprise, however others characterize sector-wide developments that ought to increase beauty retailers.
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Vacation Gross sales Increase — The vacation season is the busiest time of the yr for retailers, and ULTA buyers are anticipating extra gaudy gross sales numbers in Q3 and This fall. Fragrances, skincare, and make-up are important gross sales drivers in the course of the vacation rush, and these divisions additionally present a few of Ulta’s highest-margin merchandise.
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Enlargement into New Markets — Ulta Magnificence accomplished its acquisition of Area NK in Q2 2025, which marks its first enlargement into the U.Okay. The corporate additionally opened its first retailer in Mexico final week, and plans so as to add its first retailer within the Center East earlier than the tip of the yr.
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Sturdy Trade Tailwinds — It’s not simply the vacation rush; ULTA has long-term tailwinds pushing its inventory larger. The beauty business is quickly increasing, with gross sales projected to exceed $677 billion in 2025, accompanied by an anticipated compound annual development price (CAGR) of 6.64% via 2032, in accordance with Fortune Enterprise Insights. Gross sales are increasing at each ends of the age spectrum, as younger clients underneath 24 and seniors 65 and up are rising their purchases at a double-digit annual price.
ULTA shares are a compelling funding case regardless of the current momentum slowdown. If the 50-day SMA can maintain, the uptrend may return forcefully over the vacation season. Nevertheless, momentum continues to weaken, and the worth breaks via the 50-day threshold; higher shopping for alternatives might be accessible within the coming weeks.
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