- Prior 50.0
- Composite PMI 48.2 vs 47.2 prelim
- Prior 49.1
Despite the revision higher, UK services activity is seen slumping at its fastest pace since January last year. Business optimism also fell sharply to its weakest since April 2020 as overall conditions were impacted by shrinking demand and greater risk aversion among clients, largely due to heightened political and economic uncertainty. S&P Global notes that:
“UK service providers reported the steepest drop in business activity for 21 months in October as household spending cutbacks and shrinking business investment combined to dent new order volumes. A number of firms noted that political uncertainty and rising borrowing costs since the mini-Budget had led to greater risk aversion among clients and a wait-and-see approach to new projects. There were also many reports that higher energy bills had led to reduced spending on non-essential services.
“Overall input price inflation slowed for the fifth month running during October, which signalled a gradual easing of cost pressures from the record highs seen this spring. However, the latest rise in business expenses was still faster than at any time in the survey history prior to the pandemic, driven by further steep increases in energy costs and staff wages.
“Stubbornly high inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Read this Term, increased borrowing costs and worries about the UK economic outlook all contributed to weaker business optimism in October. Aside from the slump at the start of the pandemic, the degree of confidence across the service economy is now the lowest since December 2008.”