The percentages of a U.S. authorities shutdown earlier than February 14 proceed surging. The spikes come as Bitcoin and broader crypto markets proceed to slip, with whole market cap falling 1.8% to $2.3 trillion. In the meantime, the Concern and Greed Index has dropped to 9 from 10, including to considerations Bitcoin may fall once more after dipping under $70,000 over the last partial shutdown.
U.S. Authorities Shutdown Odds Bounce as Funding Deadline Nears
On the prediction market platform Polymarket, merchants are actually pricing an 84% likelihood of a U.S. authorities shutdown earlier than February 14. The percentages have climbed sharply, rising by 66% in current days, as fiscal tensions improve.
Supply: Polymarket
Notably, the shutdown fears are tied on to expiring federal funding. The market has grown extra pessimistic that lawmakers can finalize a deal earlier than the deadline. Because of this, expectations for a short-term funding invoice stay low.
Polymarket information suggests merchants see little probability Congress will move a invoice this week. This uncertainty has coincided with a broader market sell-off. Bitcoin has remained below stress as danger sentiment weakens throughout digital belongings.
Analysts’ Views as Bitcoin Holds Close to Key Ranges
Analysts on X have outlined their views for Bitcoin because the broader crypto market stays below stress. One analyst on X, The Hunter, warned that the present dip may deepen, pointing to BTC close to $67,000, Ethereum at $1,950, and Solana at $81.
The analyst additionally argued Bitcoin may maintain falling and doubtlessly break under $50,000 if promoting stress continues. Nevertheless, Axel Bitblaze provided a much less aggressive draw back view, evaluating Bitcoin’s present construction to 2024 earlier than a serious upside transfer.
He mentioned BTC could stay caught in a large $60,000 to $80,000 vary for a while, with temporary rallies adopted by sharp pullbacks. Bitblaze additionally recommended the market may see uneven situations that frustrate each bulls and bears, moderately than a fast rebound.
Whereas he doesn’t count on a clear V-shaped restoration, he additionally dismissed the thought of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000, describing the transfer as a substitute as a gradual grind that wears out merchants earlier than a base varieties.
RSI Close to Oversold as MACD Stays Deeply Detrimental
Whereas shutdown odds proceed rising, Bitcoin’s technical construction stays weak. The broader pattern turned bearish after rejection close to the $100,000 to $95,000 area earlier in 2026. BTC’s worth additionally broke under the prior consolidation zone round $85,000 to $90,000. That breakdown accelerated the decline towards the $60,000 to $70,000 help vary.
The RSI is at 30.54, whereas its sign line is close to 28.79. Notably, this locations momentum close to the oversold stage, which might elevate probabilities of a short-term bounce. Nevertheless, the MACD is deeply detrimental at round -5,774.60 and -4,954.66.
The histogram is close to -819.94, indicating sturdy bearish momentum regardless of slight contraction. Key help is at $65,700, adopted by the psychological $60,000 stage. Resistance has shifted decrease, now close to $70,000 to $72,000.