Tokyo CPI eased in December however stayed above goal, BOJ to remain on gradual fee hike path

The TL;DR abstract:

• Tokyo core CPI slowed to 2.3% y/y in Dec (vs. prev 2.8%, exp 2.5%), pushed by decrease power and utility prices.

• Core-core CPI eased to 2.6% y/y (prev 2.8%), however stays above the BOJ’s 2% goal, signalling persistent demand-side strain.

• Headline CPI cooled to 2.0% y/y (prev 2.7%), marking the primary clear deceleration since August.

• Knowledge softens urgency, not path, of BOJ coverage; inflation stays per gradual additional tightening after final week’s hike to 0.75%.

• Market read-through: modest yen softness close to time period, JGB front-end consolidation, Nikkei supported by decreased rapid tightening danger.

The screenshot above is through TradingEconomics.

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Tokyo inflation cooled greater than anticipated in December, however remained comfortably above the Financial institution of Japan’s 2% goal, retaining the coverage normalisation story intact whilst near-term urgency eased.

Core shopper costs within the capital, excluding recent meals, rose 2.3% y/y, slowing from 2.8% in November and undershooting market expectations of two.5%. The deceleration was pushed largely by decrease utility and power prices, alongside a moderation in meals value positive factors.

A carefully watched “core-core” measure that strips out each recent meals and power additionally softened, easing to 2.6% y/y from 2.8% beforehand, whereas headline CPI slowed to 2.0% from 2.7%. Collectively, the figures marked the primary clear easing in Tokyo inflation momentum since August.

Regardless of the slowdown, all three gauges stay at or above the BOJ’s inflation goal, reinforcing the view that underlying value pressures have turn out to be entrenched. Tokyo CPI is extensively considered a number one indicator for nationwide developments, suggesting inflation is cooling step by step fairly than collapsing.

The information follows final week’s Financial institution of Japan choice to boost its coverage fee to 0.75%, the best degree in roughly three a long time. Governor Kazuo Ueda has burdened that additional tightening will comply with if wages and costs evolve according to the central financial institution’s outlook, whereas intentionally avoiding steering on tempo or terminal ranges.

Markets now see the December information as per the BOJ’s baseline state of affairs: inflation easing as power results fade, however remaining sufficiently agency to justify extra fee hikes over time. Analysts proceed to anticipate a gradual mountain climbing cycle, with charges rising roughly each six months and a terminal degree close to 1.25%, assuming wage progress stays stable.

BOJ coverage implications

The softer-than-expected core print barely reduces strain for an imminent follow-up hike however does little to derail the broader tightening trajectory. With core inflation nonetheless above goal and wage dynamics supportive, the BOJ is prone to proceed cautiously. A pause appears probably on the subsequent assembly, on January 22–23, 2026.

Market impression: yen, JGBs, Nikkei:

• Yen: The draw back CPI shock could cap near-term yen positive factors, particularly if US yields stay elevated, however persistent above-target inflation limits scope for sustained depreciation.

• JGBs: Entrance-end yields could consolidate after the latest sell-off, although the medium-term bias stays towards larger yields as coverage normalisation continues.

• Nikkei: Equities could welcome decreased near-term tightening strain, notably rate-sensitive sectors, whereas exporters stay delicate to yen swings.