Will the 2 hurricanes that hit the US Southeast area lately weigh on the upcoming third-quarter information?
In all probability, though for the second the influence is predicted to be minimal, primarily based on set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
The median progress estimate for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report (due on Oct. 30) is a sturdy +3.0% (seasonally adjusted annual charge).
The nowcast matches the robust rise reported for Q2. The fallout from hurricanes Milton and Helene, it seems, will probably be slight for the nationwide information.
But the financial price of the storms for the 2024 hurricane season is projected to be among the many most costly in historical past. One estimate is a $50 billion price ticket.
However up to now it’s arduous to discern any conspicuous affect for the GDP nowcasts. Fairly the alternative, the truth is, for the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow mannequin, which has lifted its Q3 nowcast this month relative to September estimates.
There was a noticeable runup in US jobless claims lately, which has been attributed partly to the influence of the hurricanes.
New filings for unemployment advantages rose sharply to 260,000 for the week by Oct. 5, the best in three years, however a lot of the spike reversed within the following week.
Analysts will probably be watching tomorrow’s replace for any lingering results. The consensus forecast sees claims rising by 6,000 to 247,000, in keeping with Econoday.com’s consensus level estimate.
The overall consensus for the time being is that whereas stronger headwinds could also be brewing for the fourth quarter, the Q3 GDP report will in all probability replicate an financial system that’s buzzing. That’s the message in yesterday’s revised IMF financial forecast:
“Projected [US] progress for 2024 has been revised upward to 2.8%, which is 0.2 share level greater than the July forecast, on account of stronger outturns in consumption and nonresidential funding. The resilience of consumption is essentially the results of strong will increase in actual wages (particularly amongst lower-income households) and wealth results.”