August is a troublesome month to commerce.
There was seasonal weak point over the previous 35 years.
Liquidity is diminished and the amount is skinny.
Volatility can rise.
Tax loss promoting and rebalancing typically happens amongst establishments forward of the top of the threerd quarter.
Earnings momentum and fading optimism can taper off in August.
Maggie Lake and I lined rather a lot as at all times, and the video is on the market under.
Listed below are a few of the notes I despatched her forward of time.
- Yields topped as predicted and now, we may see additional drop-looking at basing however enjoyable begins over 90. The failed 100 if breaks 98 new leg down over 100 may see 103
Under is a chart of TLT. It represents every thing I lined with Maggie and in different Dailys.
TLT, after an public sale at this time, offered off. Nonetheless, the chart is obvious. The rally Tuesday was to the July 6-month calendar vary excessive (I discuss rather a lot about that).
The continues to outperform for now which reveals threat on.
The Actual Movement Indicator had a imply reversion promote sign proper on the calendar vary excessive.
HOWEVER, the dots are above the transferring averages whereas the value is above the 50-DMA and under the 200-DMA. A bullish divergence.
What I mentioned with Maggie is the likelihood that yields drop additional, TLT clears the resistance and SPY, can proceed to run as properly, however look ahead to the efficiency to shift. 
That is the month-to-month chart of the greenback.
The rally again as much as the 80-month transferring common (100) was an ideal technical bounce into longer-term resistance.
The greenback beneath 98 will look extra like a failure and motive to imagine it can head even decrease.
That is bullish for commodities and Maggie and I cowl rather a lot about power and the assorted uncooked supplies associated to power.
Has bottomed?
Very presumably.
Maggie and I additionally mentioned and the way it seems to be nice over 3350 and over 3450 we may see new all-time highs.
, 38.50 is the purpose to clear after which 40 is the breakout. 
That is the October contract of gold.
I’ve heard quite a lot of bears on the market.
I don’t see any bearish case on this chart.
The three charts I embody within the Each day ought to enable you to decide threat and the following path of the market.
A weakening greenback, decrease yields and rising gold costs are usually risk-off.
Ought to gold dump, yields stay flat, and the greenback runs up, the market might maintain, so that’s if you discuss with the July 6-month calendar ranges.
What’s breaking out, down or caught in a spread.
ETF Abstract
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that degree and bearish under)
The divergence between progress and worth continues to widen
S&P 500 (SPY) 628 pivotal
Russell 2000 (IWM) 215 July low to carry 222 shut resistance
Dow (DIA) 440 should maintain now
Nasdaq (QQQ) 562 key pivotal space
Regional banks (KRE) 59 the July low and really pivotal
Semiconductors (SMH) 280 help and 293 the place to clear
Transportation (IYT) 68 space should maintain
Biotechnology (IBB) 133 failed-now the purpose to clear
Retail (XRT) 81.70 the July calendar vary excessive to clear
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 116 to clear 111 help
Academic functions solely, not official buying and selling recommendation.
