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Whereas Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) will seemingly rule the weight problems drug marketplace for the following decade, rivals equivalent to Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) might quickly be snacking on their lunch, a state of affairs that has not but been priced into the shares, in line with a Morningstar report.
“We count on new therapies launching starting in 2026 from companies together with Amgen and Pfizer might develop to roughly one quarter of the market by 2032,” Morningstar mentioned.
Morningstar added that its sees Novo Nordisk and Lilly’s valuations as “wealthy,” with traders having priced within the big market alternative of the weight problems market, “however leaving little room for brand spanking new entrants.” The analysis agency added it sees rivals equivalent to Amgen and Pfizer gaining as much as a 3rd of the worldwide weight problems market in ten years.
Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, also referred to as semaglutide, has grabbed headlines for months about its potential to soften kilos. The product, which belongs to a category of medication often known as GLP-1 agonists, acquired FDA approval for weight reduction in 2021. An earlier model of the drug was accepted in 2017 for the remedy of diabetes beneath the model identify Ozempic.
Eli Lilly can be set to enter the sport with its accepted GLP-1 agonist Mounjaro, also referred to as tirzepatide. Already accepted for diabetes, a current research confirmed Mounjaro may very well be much more efficient than Wegovy in serving to sufferers shed undesirable kilos. Lilly is presently within the midst of initiating a head-to-head research between the Wegovy and Mounjaro and will launch the product for weight problems by the top of the yr.
Amgen and Pfizer’s medication are additionally chugging alongside in improvement. Amgen was slated to start Section 2 testing of its anti-obesity compound AMG-133, which comprises a GLP-1 agonist, earlier this yr. Pfizer’s providing, a GLP-1R agonist known as danuglipron, is presently in Section 2 testing for weight problems and diabetes.
Elevated competitors within the weight problems drug enviornment would seemingly result in decrease costs, which might find yourself boosting demand, particularly if the medication are lined by insurance coverage.
MorningStar estimates that the common international worth for GLP-1 therapies will climb a excessive of round $5,400 in 2024 however then decline as extra merchandise make their technique to market to round $2,800 by 2032. Within the US, Morningstar sees the value dropping from a excessive of round $8,000 to roughly $4,000, in line with its report.
All in all, Morningstar estimates the potential market measurement of the weight problems market at roughly $60B by 2032, with round 21M individuals taking GLP-1 merchandise around the globe.
The analysis agency sees Lilly ultimately edging out Novo Nordisk as market chief by 2032, commanding round 40% of the market, fueled by gross sales of not solely Mounjaro but additionally two different medication in improvement. Novo Nordisk would take one other 36% by gross sales of Wegovy and associated semaglutide merchandise. Amgen is seen grabbing 4%, Pfizer 3%, with the remaining 17% cut up amongst different entrants.
The mixed marketplace for GLP-1 medication for the remedy of weight problems and diabetes is even heftier, with Morningstar estimating gross sales of a minimum of $90B by 2030. By 2032, the analysis agency sees Novo Nordisk and Lilly each raking in gross sales of round $45B apiece from the medication, with Pfizer taking in $4B and Amgen $3B.
The sport might change considerably in 2032, nevertheless, when Novo Nordisk is slated to lose patent safety for semaglutide, which might open the doorways to cheaper generic competitors.
Extra on GLP-1 medication:
Morgan Stanley sees broader MedTech influence from weight reduction medication
Pfizer: The New Oral Weight Loss Remedy Might Be A Recreation Changer
Pfizer inventory but to suggest weight problems drug’s blockbuster potential – Cantor
Novo Nordisk features as research reveals cardiovascular advantages of weight problems drug